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Papua New Guinea's forest land area accounts for about 78% of the total land area. It is the world's largest exporter of tropical round logs, and China's market accounts for a large proportion. According to the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report, in 2021 alone, the number of logs exported to China will account for 84% of the total. After Russia officially banned logs in 2022, China's demand for PNG's timber will continue to increase.

According to Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation, on December 2, at the 2023 Budget Parliament held in Papua New Guinea, the Minister of Finance proposed to increase the log export tax by another 20% in order to provide 30 million kronor to the Papua New Guinea United Nations Biodiversity and Climate Change Trust Fund, which was questioned by some parliamentarians.

If this decision is implemented, PNG's logging industry and wood processing industry will be greatly affected, and more than 3000 jobs are expected to be lost. It is reported that the 50% (59% in particular) tariff implemented since 2020 has led many timber merchants to close or reduce their business and lost nearly 2600 jobs.

The PNG government has always wanted to ban log exports. Although it has not achieved this goal, the PNG government has not given up. In October this year, Prime Minister James Marape of PNG said that Papua New Guinea is still committed to stopping all log exports before 2025, and Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.

The increase of log export tax has been a routine operation used by many countries to limit the export volume of logs. For example, Cameroon announced to increase the log export tariff to 60% next year shortly after the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) log export ban was delayed. It is worth noting that in recent years, the PNG government's decision to raise tariffs will be opposed by the Forest Industry Association.

In 2016, Downey, chairman of PNG Forest Industry Association, questioned the PNG government's plan to increase the log export tax rate by 50% from next year. "The log market is sluggish, and the increase of export tax rate will have a negative impact on downstream processing industry."

According to Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation, after the news that the Papua New Guinea government approved to increase the log export tax from 35% to 59% in 2020, the Papua New Guinea Forest Industry Association became a sensation. The spokesman said that high taxes would lead to the closure of the forest industry, and Papua New Guinea would lose more than 1 billion kinas.

The export data of Papua New Guinea in 2021 shows that the total export volume of logs has decreased slightly by only 3.6%. From the results of tariff inquiry, China only needs to pay 9% VAT on imports of logs from Papua New Guinea. It can be seen that up to 70% of the log export tax has a greater impact on timber traders in Papua New Guinea. "We are willing to develop the processing and manufacturing industry in the lower reaches of the timber industry, but our meetings with the government have not made progress", Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation reported.

At present, PNG's timber processing industry is still unsatisfactory. In addition to the failure of the previous two log export bans in PNG, many people still question whether the 2025 log ban can be implemented. If a 70% log export tax is formulated at this time, PNG's timber industry will lose a lot.