Machinery / Industrial Parts & Tools

According to industry statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 mainframe manufacturers included in the statistics in September 2021 sold a total of 20,805 excavators of various types. Among them, 13,934 units were sold in the domestic market and 6,151 units were exported.

The sales volume of excavators in September was 20,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 23%, which was larger than that in August; the sales volume of excavators from January to September increased by 18%, and the sales volume of excavators in September was 20,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 23%, of which 14,000 units were domestic, a year-on-year decrease of 38 %; 6151 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 79%. Previously, CME predicted that excavator sales in September fell 25% year-on-year, of which domestic sales fell 36% year-on-year, and export sales grew 46%. The industry growth rate and export growth rate in September were better than CME's expectations. If compared with 2019, the sales volume in September 2021 was 27% higher than the sales volume in September 2019, with a two-year compound growth rate of 13%.

The year-on-year growth rates of excavator sales from January to September 2021 were: 97%, 205%, 60%, 3%, -14%, -6%, -9%, -14%, -23%. In September, it fell 23% in a single month, which is an increase compared to August.

In September, the proportion of small digging sales increased by 2.4pct, the proportion of medium digging sales decreased by 2.8pct, and the proportion of large digging sales increased by 0.5pct. In September, the domestic market sales of medium diggings were 3498 units, a year-on-year decrease of 45%, and sales accounted for 25%, a year-on-year decrease. 2.8pct; small digging sales were 8448 units, down 36% year-on-year, and sales accounted for 61%, a year-on-year increase of 2.4pct; large digging sales 1988 units, down 36% year-on-year, and sales accounted for 14%, up 0.5pct year-on-year.

In the domestic market from January to September, the sales volume of mid-digging in the domestic market was 68,000 units, an increase of 22% year-on-year, and the sales accounted for 29%, an increase of 3pct year-on-year; the sales volume of small digging units was 137,000 units, an increase of 6% year-on-year, and the sales accounted for 59%, a year-on-year decrease. 2pct; Big Dig sold 28,000 units, a year-on-year increase of -2%, and sales accounted for 12%, a year-on-year decrease of 1 pct.

In the second half of the year, the macro-economy is under greater pressure for stable growth. It is expected that the fourth quarter of construction machinery demand is expected to usher in a marginal improvement. Weak consumption and export growth will decline. It is expected that major infrastructure projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan period are expected to be gradually approved and started in the fourth quarter. In the first half of the year, the scale of local government special bond issuance was only 27% of the quota. It is expected that the issuance will be concentrated in the second half of the year, which will strongly support the advancement of major infrastructure projects in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. It is expected that the growth rate of domestic excavator sales may recover in the fourth quarter.

The export of excavators in September hit a new monthly high. If exports increase by 50% next year, it can hedge the domestic decline of 10%-22%. In September, exports of 6151 units in September, a year-on-year increase of 79%. The export sales volume of excavators has reached 52% in the past five years, and it is expected that the export volume will be more than 60,000 units in 2021, an increase of 73% year-on-year, showing an accelerating trend.

If a relatively pessimistic assumption is adopted for the growth rate of excavator sales in 2022 (assuming a growth rate of -10%~0% in 2022), if the export of excavators can maintain a 50% growth, the domestic excavator sales can be hedged by 10%-22% The decline.