global@hmeonline.com
Mon to Fri 09:00 – 17:30
The time span from "carbon peak" to "carbon neutrality" in China is less than half of the EU. To achieve the "dual carbon" goal, more active carbon reduction measures are needed. In addition to the challenges of limited development of the two high industries, the broad chemical market space that has brought about the realization of the "dual carbon" goal is also worthy of attention. At the "2021 3rd China Petroleum and Chemical Green Development Summit" held in Guangzhou from October 19th to 21st, Zhang Songchen, President of the China Petrochemical Research Institute of Circular Economy, made a presentation on the opportunities for the chemical market under the "dual carbon" goal Up my own opinion.
Zhang Songchen, president of the China Petrochemical Research Institute of Circular Economy, said that energy use is the largest source of carbon emissions in China, so reforms from the energy demand and supply sides are the most important way to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. In the context of carbon neutrality, China's penetration rate in the field of renewable energy and circular economy will double in the future.
According to the order of the intensity of carbon emissions, the sub-sectors of coal chemical industry, such as synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coking, are in the first echelon. They are worthy of attention in the future development layout and should be considered for phasing out and withdrawing. In 2020, the total CO2 emissions of China's petroleum and chemical industry (including coal chemical industry) are about 1.481 billion tons, accounting for about 16% of the country’s total CO2 emissions, which is 5 percentage points higher than the contribution rate of the petroleum and chemical industries to GDP (2020 Annual accounts for about 11%).
The 12 key sub-sectors of the petroleum and chemical industry (including synthetic ammonia, methanol, oil refining, coking, calcium carbide, ethylene, coal-to-liquid, caustic soda, coal-to-ethylene glycol, soda ash, coal-to-gas, tires) CO2 emissions are 1.003 billion tons, It accounts for 67.9% of the total emissions of the chemical industry.
From the perspective of the olefin industry, the main carbon emission in the olefin production process comes from the industrial process, and the carbon emission intensity of the coal head process among the three olefin production processes is much higher than other processes.
From the perspective of salt chemical industry, the synthesis process of chlor-alkali and calcium carbide is a huge energy consumption, and the carbon emission in the process is not much. The carbon emission process is mainly the process of energy consumption.
With the proposal of the dual-carbon target, multiple departments have recently held intensive meetings and issued relevant policy requirements, frequently mentioning the strict control of "double high" (high energy consumption and high emissions) projects. On May 30, 2021, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Guiding Opinions on Strengthening the Prevention and Control of the Eco-Environmental Sources of High Energy Consumption and High Emission Construction Projects". Zhang Songchen believes that the double high goal will continue to influence and change the supply and demand pattern of chemical products in the coming decades:
1. The industry structure is optimized under the background of standardization of safety and environmental protection, and the "dual carbon" goal further strengthens the advantages of leading enterprises, and the trend of the strong will become more and more clear.
2. With the continuous improvement of domestic environmental protection and safety production requirements, it is difficult for some companies to start operations normally, which has a profound impact on the industry. The number of domestic petroleum and chemical companies above designated size has continued to decrease since 2016.
3. In the long run, the competitive landscape of the domestic chemical industry is shifting from the past "high investment and high growth" situation to the new normal of "increasing industry concentration, leading companies with comparative advantages and strong strengths", and the industry concentration is further increasing. concentrated.
At the policy level, the approval and verification of chemical projects involving "double highs" will be further tightened in the future, and for those that can alleviate China's "double highs" development, such as the development of high-end fine chemicals, circular economy, renewable energy and ecological environment protection, etc. Industry projects are more conducive to development and investment.
The new production capacity of most chemical products is strictly limited, especially the high energy consumption and high emission products such as PVC, methanol and synthetic ammonia in the traditional coal chemical industry, which are more restricted. The new process greatly reduces carbon emissions by using cleaner energy, increasing the utilization rate of raw materials, and increasing the treatment of exhaust gas, and will gradually replace the existing backward production capacity.
The dual-carbon policy has spawned a large number of new business opportunities in the chemical industry. In the future, the application prospects of chemical products in new energy, chemical industry, transportation, construction and fields are broad.
It is estimated that China’s non-fossil energy penetration rate will be 85% in 2060, and power generation will rise from the current 75GW to 220GW; photovoltaic and wind power generation will become the main driving force for carbon neutrality.
Photovoltaic power generation has three important factors: cost advantage, energy security, and sufficient resource endowment. It is the first choice for China's power carbon neutral energy in the future. With the rise of the photovoltaic market, the demand for products in all links of the industrial chain will explode. The scale of the product market reached 180 billion yuan. The types of chemicals involved include: metallic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, silver paste, base film, fluorine film, etc.
The country will steadily promote wind power generation, insist on limited consumption, and develop offshore wind power steadily and orderly. It is estimated that in 2030, China's newly installed wind power capacity will reach 250GW~300GW, and the chemical market will reach 270 billion. The types of chemicals involved include: epoxy resin, carbon fiber, special coatings, curing agents, etc.
The energy storage device type can solve the intermittent and unstable weakness of wind and solar energy. It is expected that there will be a large demand in the next ten years, and the energy storage will increase to 80% in 2020-2030. As a flexible power regulation resource, energy storage has long-term and irreplaceable social value in the low-carbon transition process of replacing traditional fossil energy with new energy, especially electrochemical energy storage, which will start a rapid growth trend in the future. The types of chemicals involved include: lithium battery materials, LFP cathode materials, electrolytes, etc.
The development and utilization of hydrogen energy is one of the important ways to realize the low-carbon transition. It is estimated that China's hydrogen energy market will reach 550 billion yuan in 2030. The types of chemicals involved include: carbon fiber, proton exchange membranes, electrocatalysts, etc.
In addition, the demand for chemicals related to the field of degradable plastics and waste resource recycling will also achieve rapid growth.
According to the calculation of the development speed of key industries under the dual-carbon target, it is estimated that the Chinese market will have about 1.4 trillion yuan of new chemical market space in the next 10 years.
