Machinery / Industrial Parts & Tools

Since China joined the World Trade Organization, China's mechanical and electrical industry has accelerated its integration into the global industrial chain and value chain, and the scale of trade has expanded rapidly. Despite the short-term disruptions caused by Sino-US economic and trade frictions and the new crown pneumonia epidemic in recent years, the international competitiveness of China's mechanical and electrical industry has continued to improve, the development direction of the steady increase in the volume of mechanical and electrical foreign trade, and the pace of development of the industry's steady growth in trade volume have not substantially changed. In the past year, China's mechanical and electrical import and export trade has achieved rapid growth. Gao Shiwang, director of the Industry Development Department of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, said that in the new year, the international market demand will improve, which will form a strong support for China's electromechanical foreign trade. China's electromechanical foreign trade will continue to strive for stability and quality, and strive to achieve progress. growth in exports.

Previously, the International Monetary Fund, APEC, World Bank and other international institutions expected that the global economic growth this year will remain in the range of 4.3% to 4.9%, and the World Trade Organization also predicted that the global trade in goods will increase by 4.7% in 2022. "Global demand for key products such as computers, mobile phones, integrated circuits, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics is expected to increase, which constitutes support for industry demand." Gao Shiwang also said that the global supply chain under the disruption of the epidemic will still face difficulties in 2022. Certainty, the strong resilience of China's mechanical and electrical capacity supply supports the growth of its trade. Among the electromechanical industries, emerging industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, integrated circuits, and new energy vehicles have more potential for export growth in the new year. In addition, intermediate goods trade will also benefit from the entry into force of RCEP and is expected to achieve growth.

Key export commodities will achieve steady growth

Although this year's mobile phone shipments are narrower than expected, the increase in the average export price has formed a certain support for the total mobile phone exports. "The increase in the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones and the increase in the market share of high-end models on the average unit price is still the most important supporting factor for the growth of export value. It is expected that China's mobile phone export value will show a slight growth of about 2% in 2022." Gao Shiwang Express.

In the context of easing supply chain tensions, China's computer exports are expected to achieve steady growth this year. IDC said it expects supply chain tensions within the industry to ease by the first half of 2022. A major company in the industry predicts that the company's PC shipments will increase by 7% to 8% in 2022. "The average selling price of personal computers will increase due to the demand for high-performance notebook computers in the gaming industry and enterprises, as well as the increase in demand for touch-screen computers in the education field, which will further support the growth of computer exports." Gao Shiwang said.

China's integrated circuit export trade will also continue to grow rapidly. The digital economy, smart applications, and terminal demands (mobile phones, PCs, servers, and automotive industries) will continue to drive the growth of the semiconductor market. Informatization and digitization drive the global integration market to maintain prosperity, and the focus of China's integrated circuit exports will also extend upstream. Gao Shiwang believes that driven by market demand, China's integrated circuit exports will achieve a steady growth of 8% this year, and imports will achieve a 6% increase.

With the continuous release of electric vehicle market demand, China's vehicle exports are expected to increase by more than 15% year-on-year this year, and mature markets such as the European Union will become a new stage for China's electric vehicles to deeply participate in international competition. At the same time, China's own brand car exports will also rise. "In the context of the continuous increase in overseas demand, Chinese auto companies have sufficient orders on hand, and the differentiated advantages of self-owned brand products are prominent. In the past year, China's self-owned brand vehicles have completed in-depth layout and service support in some key markets. This year, its export The volume is expected to continue to increase steadily." said Sun Xiaohong, secretary general of the Automobile Branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products.

Expansion of export markets to emerging countries and regions

From the perspective of the export market, Gao Shiwang expects that the growth rate of China's mechanical and electrical products exports to the US and EU markets will be narrowed this year. The main reason is that the high shipping prices to the United States are difficult to alleviate in the short term, and countries are paying more attention to the security of the supply chain and industrial chain of their own key products. Short-chain production that produces and provides services locally or close to the market will become a trend. Wait.

But in the new year, he expects that the export of China's mechanical and electrical products to Mexico and Turkey is expected to increase. In 2021, affected by the shipping problem, some orders for major appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, dishwashers, and air conditioners in China will be transferred to countries and regions such as Turkey, Mexico, Southeast Asia, Brazil, and North Africa. Compared with Europe and South America, these countries have And the region is closer to China and the shipping cost is lower, so it has become a popular region to undertake transfer orders.

The official implementation of the RCEP agreement this year will also bring benefits to the growth of China's import and export trade of mechanical and electrical products. In the past ten years, the average annual growth rate of China's mechanical and electrical products and RCEP member countries' trade volume is 4.8%, which is higher than the growth rate of mechanical and electrical products and total merchandise trade in the same period. RCEP countries are important sources of China's mechanical and electrical imports. Gao Shiwang believes that the entry into force of the RCEP agreement will continue to promote the deep integration and trade growth of the mechanical and electrical industries between regions.