Machinery / Industrial Parts & Tools

Recently, the latest tractor sales data released by the Irish agricultural tractor and Machinery Trade Association (ftmta) shows that in the first four months of 2022, large tractors with 120 horsepower and above occupy the top of agricultural machinery sales.

The association divides the tractors sold into those with 120 horsepower and above and those with less than 120 horsepower, so as to roughly understand the relationship between the market and tractors in different power segments.

Power demand turnaround

From January to April 2022, 724 tractors with higher power (above 120 HP) and 343 tractors with lower power (below 120 HP) were sold. This is different from the situation in 2020, when the data were 594 and 621 respectively.

However, it is also unwise to interpret this difference too much. In the past few years, there has been little consistency in the relative popularity of each power segment. The total sales volume in the first four months of 2022 decreased by 150 units compared with that in 2021, which confirmed the feeling in the industry that the decline in sales was caused by the decline in consumer confidence at the beginning of the year.

The delivery time caused confusion

The sales data are based on the registration of new tractors, which may lag far behind the purchase decision. More complicated, the delivery time of different models will be different, so it is impossible to determine the time period reflected by the registration data.

With the increasing complexity and operation capacity of customized tractors, the delivery time of some products has increased to several months. The current situation is that due to the shortage of steel and parts, the delivery time may be extended to one year or more.

Large tractor wins

Therefore, when measuring sales data, the total registration figure may have become a hard indicator. The comparison between years may be of reference value.

However, there are some problems in details. With the breakdown of rated power, even such a rough calculation, the sales of tractors with less than 120 horsepower seem to have slowed down. If we assume that dealers who order tractors may buy smaller horsepower machines that do not take up too much money, this may be a better indication of market conditions.

Balance of sales data

In the five years up to and including 2021, the average sales volume from January to April is 461 sets. The number of 346 units is the lowest in the past 2023 years.

Sales forecast in 2022

As with statistics, trends and conclusions can be extracted from raw data to confirm deviations, rather than accurately reflect the real situation, so it is wise not to over analyze the data in any particular way.

Historically, 53% of tractor sales occurred before the end of April, so about 2080 tractors are expected to be sold in 2022. This is lower than 2366 units in 2021, but still higher than the five-year average of 2007 units.

On the bright side, lower sales are likely to shorten delivery time, and although the cost depends on too many other factors, it will not be greatly affected by the slowdown in demand.