Machinery / Industrial Parts & Tools

In June 2022, the sales data of excavators was released, and the year-on-year decline was significantly narrowed. Among them, with the weakening of the impact of closed management and control on logistics and transportation, the implementation of the stable growth policy has achieved remarkable results, and domestic sales have improved. At the same time, the company took multiple measures to ensure that logistics boosted the development of overseas markets, and the export share continued to rise, reaching a new record high.

According to the industry statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in June 2022, the 26 mainframe manufacturers included in the statistics sold a total of 20,761 excavators of various types, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%. Among them, the sales volume in the domestic market was 11,027 units, a year-on-year decrease of 35.0%; the export sales volume was 9,734 units, a year-on-year increase of 58.4%.

From January to June 2022, a total of 143,094 excavators of various types were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 36.1%. Among them, the sales volume in the domestic market was 91,124 units, a year-on-year decrease of 52.9%; the export sales volume was 51,970 units, a year-on-year increase of 72.2%.

From the data point of view, the improvement in domestic demand and the high growth of exports have contributed to the sharp narrowing of the year-on-year decline in June. In terms of domestic tonnage division, in the sales structure in June, small digging and large digging have improved significantly, which also highlights the boost in demand for urban construction, rural revitalization and mine construction.

The stable growth policy has been effective, and domestic demand has ushered in improvement

Due to the accelerated implementation of domestic infrastructure investment, the domestic sales of excavators ushered in improvement in June, down 35.0% year-on-year. Compared with the previous three months, the decline has narrowed, but it is still the lowest sales in the same month in the past five years, and the stock market has grown. Weakness remains.

In addition, domestic sales in June last year have entered a downward channel, and the base effect has been weakened to a certain extent, which is also a major factor in the narrowing of the decline.

At the construction level, since May, the epidemic situation in various places has gradually improved, the impact of closed management and control on logistics and transportation has gradually weakened, and the domestic demand for construction has picked up. According to the "CCTV Financial Excavator Index", the operating rate of construction machinery in May this year was 67.15%, maintaining a slight increase.

Among them, major projects in many places started intensive construction in June, and infrastructure investment continued to make steady growth. According to the statistics of the infrastructure link, there were about 57 major construction projects across the country in June, with a total investment of about 384.4 billion yuan, including 10 highways, 3 railways, 3 airports, 2 subways, 9 water conservancy projects, 2 wharfs, 10 city projects, etc.

At the same time, as an important source of funds for infrastructure, the issuance of special bonds is also accelerating. According to the government's arrangement, it is necessary to speed up the issuance and use of the 3.45 trillion yuan special bonds issued this year, basically complete the issuance by the end of June, and strive to basically complete the use by the end of August. As of the first half of this year, about 3.4 trillion yuan of special bonds have actually been issued in various places, and the issuance progress is about 99%. That is to say, about 1.25 trillion yuan of special bonds have been issued in June alone, setting a new high in the scale of monthly bond issuance in recent years. .

In addition to special bonds, other support funds are also rapidly in place. The executive meeting of the State Council held a few days ago proposed to increase the credit line of policy banks by 800 billion yuan to support the construction of financial infrastructure. In addition, the investment capital arrangement in this year's fiscal budget is 640 billion yuan, an increase from last year's 610 billion yuan.

With the intensive introduction of a series of policies and measures to stabilize investment, a new round of major project start-up boom has been launched in the local area, which provides conditions for the improvement of domestic demand for excavators.

The fragrance inside the wall blooms outside the wall, and the proportion of overseas exports hits a new high

Although the domestic excavator has been declining for 15 consecutive months, the overseas market has continued to grow. In June, the export of excavators increased by 58.4%. While the growth rate continued the high growth trend, it also created a year-on-year increase for 5 consecutive years and 60 months.

Since the beginning of this year, construction machinery companies have vigorously developed overseas markets. XCMG, Sany, Zoomlion, Liugong, Lingong and other companies have increased their investment in overseas markets, and at the same time, they have taken various measures to ensure logistics and promote the development of overseas markets. It is worth mentioning that the export to the Russian market has been affected by some external factors, such as logistics obstacles, and it has basically recovered to 80%.

For some areas where the market is hot, Zoomlion cooperated with Sinotrans to set up regular liner with special class system; Guangxi Liugong signed a three-year strategic cooperation agreement with COSCO Haite, COSCO Haite will provide Liugong with Jakarta, Indonesia Special class express line in the direction...  

At the same time, the proportion of overseas market revenue in construction machinery enterprises is also expected to increase rapidly. Enterprises continue to increase their development in Indonesia and other hot market regions in Southeast Asia, and compete with overseas brands on the same stage, and exports are expected to grow further.

Weakening of the base effect + recovery of infrastructure + overseas growth, the decline is expected to continue to narrow in the second half of the year

From a cyclical perspective, the sales of excavators are still under pressure, but they are approaching a staged bottom. From the summary of the 10 securities companies' outlook on the trend of the construction machinery industry in the second half of the year, all securities companies are basically optimistic. It is expected that the decline in product sales in the second half of the year will be significantly narrowed or even expected to turn positive. trend.

Based on the above, the author believes that: in the second half of the year, with the arrival of the peak of the use of local special bonds, it is expected to usher in the peak season of rushing to work, and construction machinery will usher in substantial benefits. At the same time, the electrification of new energy products under the "dual carbon" goal will also promote the development of the construction machinery industry for a long time, superimposed on the low base effect in the second half of the year, and the growing competitiveness of overseas markets, it is expected that the sales of construction machinery such as excavators in the second half of the year will be The decline is expected to continue to narrow.