Machinery / Industrial Parts & Tools

The newly disclosed excavator sales data in September showed that the excavator sales grew positively for three consecutive months, with obvious signs of recovery in the industry, and the sustained high growth in the overseas market became an important pillar.

The excavator sales data disclosed by China Construction Machinery Industry Association on October 11 shows that in September 2022, about 21200 excavators of all kinds will be sold, with a year-on-year growth of about 5.5%. Since becoming a regular excavator for the first time in 14 months in July this year, the growth rate of excavator sales has remained in a positive range for three consecutive months, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.4%, 0% (an increase of 1 set) and 5.5% respectively. At the same time, the cumulative decline in excavator sales during the year also narrowed from 36.1% in the first six months to 28.3%.

It is worth mentioning that the 5.5% monthly sales growth rate is better than the industry expectation. The observation report released by CME at the end of September shows that it is estimated that the sales volume of excavators (including exports) in September 2022 will be about 18300, down about 9% year on year.

From the perspective of structure, the year-on-year decline in the domestic sales of excavators continued to narrow. In September, the domestic sales of excavators were 10500, a year-on-year decline of 24.5%, and the previous value was 26.3%; The export of excavators increased further on the basis of last year's high base. In September, 10700 excavators were exported, with a year-on-year growth of 73.3% and a previous value of 56.7%.

Domestic demand is supported by policies

The demand for excavators comes from the groundbreaking links of projects in infrastructure, real estate and other fields, and its demand heat directly reflects the investment heat of infrastructure and fixed assets in various regions.

The continuous recovery of domestic excavator sales since July is supported by policies. At the executive meeting of the State Council held on August 24, after deploying 33 measures in six areas in May this year, the State Council once again made a comprehensive deployment to stabilize the economic market, adding 19 follow-up policies. A number of policies directly refer to the infrastructure field, including increasing the quota of policy oriented development financial instruments, approving the commencement of a number of infrastructure projects with mature conditions, etc.

Judging from a number of indicators, relevant policies have begun to take effect.

The latest social finance data disclosed showed that in September, social finance increased by 3.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 624.5 billion yuan over the previous year, higher than the average market expectation; The investment in real loans increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, the highest in the same period since data statistics. The financing of the enterprise sector is relatively strong, which is believed by the institution to be related to the landing of policy oriented development financial instruments, the recovery of project construction after the relief of high temperature weather and other factors.

In addition, according to insiders, in September, especially since late September, the commencement of infrastructure related projects has improved significantly. Investors can further expect the data on fixed asset investment to be disclosed in mid October.

In addition, the construction machinery industry is about to start the era of "National IV". Since December 1, all non road mobile machinery under 560kW (including 560kW) produced, imported and sold and the diesel engines installed therein shall comply with the "National IV" standards. According to market feedback, this policy change will often play a certain role in promoting short-term sales of construction machinery.

The relevant personage of a leading construction machinery enterprise told the reporter that the confidence of the downstream employees of construction machinery in the domestic sales of excavators in the fourth quarter was significantly improved. First, the policy of stable growth will continue to work, and the downstream recovery since July is expected to continue; Second, the traditional peak season of the construction machinery industry began in September, and the seasonal rule is expected to continue to take effect; Third, the policy node of "national three" to "national four" is also expected to play a certain role in the short term.

Overseas sales continue to create surprises

Against the background of high growth of excavator export in international trade last year, the excavator export has maintained a strong growth momentum since this year. In September, the excavator export volume exceeded the domestic sales volume.

In terms of growth rate, the export of international trade of excavators in September increased by 73.3% year on year, higher than the cumulative 70.5% since this year. It is worth mentioning that such a high growth is achieved on the basis of a high base. In 2021, China's excavator exports will reach 68400 units in the whole year, with a year-on-year growth of 97%, and the single export volume will hit new historical highs.

In terms of sales volume, the export volume of excavators in international trade in September surpassed the domestic sales volume: 10700 excavators were exported in September, a small increase of 147 compared with the domestic sales volume. For comparison, from January to September this year, the excavator exports totaled 80300 units, accounting for 40% of the total excavator sales; Last year, 68400 excavators were exported, accounting for 20% of the total sales volume of excavators.

The strong export is reflected in the financial report, which means that the quantity and quality of the international trade market are rising simultaneously. According to the enterprise's interim report, the overseas revenues of Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG and Zoomlion, the leading construction machinery companies, accounted for 41.3%, 32.7% and 18.3% respectively, up 22.8 percentage points, 23.6 percentage points and 11.2 percentage points year on year. The profitability of overseas business is also better. Taking Sany Heavy Industry, a leading enterprise, as an example, the gross profit rate of overseas business in the first half of the year was 24.4%, more than 3 percentage points higher than that of domestic business.

The continuous breakthrough of domestic enterprises in the international trade market is due to the growth of overall overseas demand after the epidemic, but the core is the increase of market share brought by the improvement of the competitiveness of domestic construction machinery enterprises, and this process may have just begun. As of the first half of this year, Sany Heavy Industry, with the highest domestic and overseas market share, had about 8% of the overseas market share (1.3 percentage points higher than that at the beginning of the year), and still had great room for expansion.