Metallurgy / Chemicals / Rubber & Plastics

According to the observation of Huacheng's import and export data, the total output value of China's rubber industry in 2022 increased by 10% compared with 2019 before the epidemic. However, affected by the epidemic, 2022 is still the worst year for industrial profits in the past three years, and also the most difficult year for enterprise operation. What is the overall operating situation of the rubber industry in 2023 after the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control? In response, Xu Wenying, president of the China Rubber Industry Association, said in an interview with reporters that, from the perspective of the downward trend of the world economic growth expectations, the downside risks of the overseas economy are increasing and the external demand is not optimistic. Rubber enterprises should improve their internal skills, seize domestic opportunities, and actively carry out cooperation with enterprises in RCEP member countries to achieve good development.

Last year, the most difficult business operation

According to the observation report of Huacheng's import and export data, from January to October 2022, the total output value of the rubber industry reached 338.637 billion yuan, an increase of 3.25%; The sales revenue reached 347.783 billion yuan, up 5.84%; The export delivery value was 124.066 billion yuan, up 17.03%; The export rate (value) was 35.67%, an increase of 3.41 percentage points; The realized profit was 10.874 billion yuan, down 13.18%; The profit margin of sales revenue was 4.75%, down 1.06 percentage points.

"Because the export of rubber products has maintained a rapid growth in the past three years, even under the influence of the epidemic, the total output value of China's rubber industry in 2022 is still 10% higher than that in 2019 before the epidemic." Xu Wenying said, but the industrial profit fluctuates greatly, and 2022 is the worst year for the rubber industry in the past three years. Of the 361 enterprises counted by the China Rubber Association, 46 suffered losses, amounting to 1.165 billion yuan.

The decline of foreign demand this year has hindered exports

Xu Wenying said that in the medium and long term, the "new ten" measures to optimize epidemic prevention and control issued by China at the end of last year will have a positive impact on China's economy. However, due to the epidemic situation and the complex and volatile international environment, there is still a high degree of uncertainty in the development of China's rubber industry in 2023.

Xu Wenying pointed out that from the domestic situation in 2022, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 3.8% in the first 11 months, lower than the average growth rate of 6.1% in the same period of the past two years; The total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 0.1%, lower than the average growth rate of 4% in the same period of the past two years. This means that China's economy still faces certain pressure in the short term, which will bring challenges to the development of China's rubber industry.

"From the trend of import and export since September 2022, China's export growth rate has declined significantly in recent months. From the downward trend of world economic growth expectations, the downside risk of overseas economy is increasing, and the external demand in 2023 is not very optimistic, which will affect China's export trade." Xu Wenying pointed out that China's rubber industry has a high degree of external dependence, with the export rate (value) accounting for more than 1/3, especially the export rate (value) of the tire industry close to 50%. The decline of foreign demand and the obstruction of export will have a great impact on China's rubber industry. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.

In addition, uncertainties such as the adjustment of the global geopolitical pattern, the climate crisis, the short-term growth of fossil energy demand, and extreme weather will also have a certain impact on the development of the rubber industry.

Seek new development opportunities in many ways

Xu Wenying believes that although China's rubber industry will face many challenges in 2023, it can pay more attention to the following aspects to find new opportunities for development.

First of all, the Central Economic Work Conference, which concluded on December 16, 2022, made a plan for the economic work in 2023, and made "efforts to expand domestic demand" the first major task of the economic work in 2023, giving priority to the recovery and expansion of consumption. Xu Wenying said that 2023 will be the inflection point of domestic and foreign demand, and domestic demand will take the place of foreign demand to lift the beam of China's economic recovery. Therefore, rubber enterprises should pay more attention to the opportunities of domestic demand recovery.

Secondly, 2023 is the third year of the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan", and some provincial, municipal and local planning projects and new and old infrastructure projects will accelerate the implementation, involving artificial intelligence, quantum information, clean energy, military industry, consumer electronics, medicine, high-end manufacturing and other key areas. Driven by the policy, the counter-cyclical regulation of manufacturing investment is prominent, which will continue to drive manufacturing investment, thus benefiting the rubber industry.

Thirdly, pay attention to the new trend of the development of the automobile industry. The rubber industry is closely related to the development of the automobile industry. 70% of the parts of a car are related to rubber products. According to Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation, China's auto sales are expected to reach 27.6 million in 2023, an increase of 3%. Among them, passenger cars are expected to reach 23.8 million, up 1.3%; Commercial vehicles are expected to reach 3.8 million, up 15%; New energy vehicles are expected to reach 9 million, up 35%. "From the perspective of China's car ownership and current car sales, it is expected that the demand for tyres and rubber products for automobiles will remain at a high level," Xu Wenying said.

"In addition, rubber enterprises should pay close attention to the development of the aviation industry and seek new development opportunities; actively carry out cooperation with enterprises in RCEP member countries, flexibly carry out industrial layout, reduce product production costs, and improve the competitiveness of China's rubber products; focus on the analysis of the import uses and use occasions of high-end rubber products, and carry out research and development substitution." Xu Wenying said, Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.