Metallurgy / Chemicals / Rubber & Plastics

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.8% year-on-year in real terms. Among them, the chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry grew by 8.6%. The growth rate of industrial value-added can be understood as the rate of industrial growth. Industrial value-added indicators can be used to judge the short-term trend of our industry's operation and the industry's prosperity. In the case of vigorously adjusting the prices of bulk products, the chemical industry's 8.6 growth rate has been very impressive, indicating that the chemical industry's demand is growing. The titles of our recent articles have emphasized supply and demand, because the relationship between supply and demand dominates the market, the balance of supply and demand tends to which side, and the product market will not deviate from the basic trend. That is also the basis for us to predict future trends.

With the current supply-demand relationship dominating the market trend, downstream demand lacks effective support. Recently, the maleic anhydride market, which has been rising for two consecutive months, has begun to fall, and continues to fall after falling below the 10,000 yuan line on June 1. The current average market price is 9,900 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is 12.78% lower than the two-month high.

Many industry experts believe that maleic anhydride is a chemical product that uses crude oil as its source. The market trend of maleic anhydride should be basically consistent with the upstream market. However, in recent years, the trend of maleic anhydride has deviated from that of crude oil, showing a typical supply-demand-oriented market situation. The main reason for the decline in anhydride was the slowdown in downstream unsaturated resins affected by environmental protection. After June, with the advent of the high temperature season and rainy season, the main downstream industries of unsaturated resins such as glass fiber reinforced plastics gradually entered the seasonal off-season, plus Guangdong and other southern China regions The impact of limited power has caused some resin companies and downstream glass fiber reinforced plastic companies to reduce their burdens and production. In the absence of support on the demand side and oversupply, prices are difficult to rise in the short term.

Since the beginning of June, the market price of carbon black has risen sharply due to the cost of raw materials. The price of new orders by tire companies has risen by RMB 800-100/ton from the previous month. Due to the high price of carbon black, the amount of carbon black purchased by tire companies has been under pressure. Compared with the previous month, there has been a sharp decline. At present, the carbon black market has little fluctuation. The carbon black industry operating rate this week is 70.25%. Next week, the carbon black enterprises will basically resume their operations. It is expected that the industry will start to increase next week. While the downstream demand is declining, carbon black lacks fundamental support, and it is unlikely that it will continue to rise, and prices will fall in the short term.

Recently, domestic PTA prices have fluctuated upwards. Supported by international oil prices, PTA prices have fluctuated higher. The industry is generally optimistic about the economic and demand prospects, and the advancement of vaccination has increased the confidence of the industry, which has led to the rise of international oil prices. In addition, although PX-N has been repaired recently, there is still room for upward movement. Therefore, the cost-side advantage supports the high price of PTA. From the perspective of the supply side, the recent fluctuations in PTA equipment have not been significant. Yisheng Ningbo 2.2 million tons and Yadong Petrochemical have restarted one after another, and the supply has increased. However, there is news in the market that Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million tons of new equipment will be put into operation in the near future. Some devices are expected to be overhauled, but the specific overhaul time is not yet clear. Therefore, the market mentality has weakened due to the continuous fermentation of the news of the new installations being put into production. In addition, although some PTA devices are expected to be overhauled, the overhaul time is not yet clear, and the market is worried about the increase in supply.

The recent downstream polyester load is higher than 90%. Fujian Jingwei, Fujian Yijin and other installations have reduced production, but the load of Wankai, Hengyi, Jinlun installations has increased, and the polyester output data has further increased, so polyester output and load There is a narrow rise, which has a certain positive support for PTA.

Due to the advancement of vaccination and the decline in the number of newly diagnosed people, many countries in Europe and the United States continue to deregulate, and fuel demand continues to increase. It is expected that the demand side performance will continue to improve, the international oil price will remain high, and the cost side is mainly supported by favorable support.

On the whole, the cost side consolidates under the high international oil price, which continues to support positively. From the perspective of the supply and demand structure, the polyester load maintains a level above 90%, which has a certain positive support for TA. However, the market mentality of Yisheng New Materials may be expected to be put into production, and the market mentality has weakened. However, with favorable cost support and low processing fees, it is expected that the PTA price will be stronger next week, and the price range will be 4685-4850 yuan/ton.