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This year’s government work report set an economic growth target of 6%. Due to the low base last year, there is little pressure to achieve the target throughout the year. The Politburo meeting at the end of April pointed out that the window period with less pressure for steady growth should be used. The economic recovery has slowed down. After the epidemic, the high demand for chemical products has passed. The demand intensity in the second half of the year will be weaker than that of the first half. The domestic economic recovery is weakened and the economy is facing slowdown pressure. The focus of the macro economy in the second half of the year may be structural adjustment and construction. In the long-term momentum, external demand will fall, and domestic demand will recover. Judging from the purchase price index of major raw materials, with the exception of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries, which continued to climb, other industries all declined significantly. Looking at the ex-factory price index, most industries have declined to varying degrees. Among them, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry have fallen sharply, all falling into the contraction range; but petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries Still higher than 70.0%, the ex-factory price of products continued to rise.
According to transaction data, in June 2021, the chlor-alkali industry price rises and falls list includes 4 commodities, 1 commodity with decline, and 0 commodities with zero rise or fall. The main commodities that rose were: calcium carbide (10.40%), light soda ash (6.33%), and caustic soda (3.50%); the main commodities that fell were: PVC (-1.64%). The average increase and decrease this month was 4.31%. The overall demand performance in June was acceptable, the price of soda ash was operating stably, and the price of soda ash went up in June. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was around 1750 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1900 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.5%. At present, soda ash is operating in a narrow range in North China. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1850-1950 yuan/ton. The downstream glass has strong demand for soda ash. Since last year, the domestic glass price has been stable. Overall, manufacturers have no inventory. Under pressure, prices are mainly operated, and traders are more flexible in trading. It is expected that glass prices will fluctuate within a narrow range in the market outlook.
The melamine market rose strongly in April. From the average price of domestic melamine companies of 9350 yuan/ton on April 1, to the price of more than 10,000 yuan in mid-April, the price rose all the way, rising continuously, reaching new highs. On May 8, melamine companies quoted prices. The highest price was 15,250 yuan/ton. As of June 30, the average price of domestic melamine companies was 10,800 yuan/ton, and the market rose by 14.39% in the second quarter. The lowest price in the second quarter was 9050 yuan/ton on June 1st, and the highest price in the second quarter was 15250 yuan/ton on May 8th. In mid-to-late May, the price of melamine fell under pressure from the high level, and the downward trend started, and downstream companies were at a high level. Continued decline in undertaking capacity, insufficient follow-up of new domestic trade orders, and high melamine operating rate, the focus of market negotiations has continued to fall. Under the mentality of buying up and not buying down, the downturn prevails. The downturn continues, and the price drops to the lowest in the second quarter. After this point, the price stopped falling and rebounded in early June. The cost support was strong. In addition, the improvement in downstream demand gave the market price support. The melamine market in June rose steadily, with an increase of 18.38% in June. It is expected that in the short term, the price of melamine may remain stable.
In the first half of 2021, the domestic propylene glycol price showed an overall upward trend. At the beginning of the year, the average price of the Shandong market was 12,100 yuan/ton. The average price of the Shandong market was 16,200 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 4100 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.88. %. The highest price in the first half of the year occurred at the end of April, and the average price in the Shandong market was 18,350 yuan/ton. Overall, in the first half of 2021, the Shandong market average price of 15,672.95 yuan/ton was accepted for delivery, a year-on-year average price of 6,836.78 yuan/ton in the first half of 2020, an increase of 129.24%.
The overall price increase in the first half of 2021 is mainly due to the long-term supply-demand imbalance. First, the supply of manufacturers continues to be in short supply. Second, the downstream raw material inventory continues to be low and the consumption of individual industries is decreasing. Third, the export market supports domestic prices, and the fourth is imports. The supply of goods is reduced.
Manufacturers’ spot supply continues to be in short supply: First, the status of manufacturers’ inventory and orders continued in the second half of 2020. In the first half of 2021, the factory order scheduling cycle has always been maintained at about 5-15 days, and the inventory has always been maintained at a low level. Basically 0 inventory; on the other hand, the overall operating load of manufacturers in the first half of 2021 was low compared to the same period last year. The total domestic propylene glycol production in the first half of 2021 was 140,600 tons, which was a decrease of 38,400 tons from 179,900 tons in the first half of 2020.
The downstream raw material inventory continues to be low and the consumption of individual industries is decreasing: the average market price of propylene glycol will basically maintain at 6000-7000 yuan/ton before the second half of 2020, while the average price of propylene glycol in the first half of 2021 will be more than 15000 yuan/ton, which is huge downstream Under the cost pressure of propylene glycol, some downstream companies have adopted alternatives to replace propylene glycol, and some downstream companies have modified formulas to reduce the amount of propylene glycol added. The demand for propylene glycol in some downstream industries has decreased; in addition, under the continued high price of propylene glycol, the purchase of downstream industries has basically maintained rigid demand. Raw material inventories have always remained low.
The export market supports domestic prices: the export of propylene glycol from January to May of 2021 is 55,000 tons, and the export volume of propylene glycol from January to May in 2020 is 57,000 tons, a decrease of 2 million tons. Compared with the decrease in domestic production, the export volume of propylene glycol is still domestic The market price has greater support.
Reduced import sources: China's imports of propylene glycol from January to May of 2021 are 29,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30,000 tons of imports from January to May of 2020 by 5,000 tons, although the decrease is only 1.7%, but in the context of domestic production reduction It is undoubtedly worse.
Entering July, the current price of propylene glycol is still at a high price of 16,000 yuan/ton or more, and the factory scheduling cycle is about 10 days, and the spot is hard to find. It is expected that the price will start with a slight increase in the second half of 2021.
The domestic potassium sulfate market was strong in June. As of June 30, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 pellet samples was 4,083.33 yuan/ton, a 33.15% increase from the monthly average price level, and a 52.65% increase over the same period last year.
The domestic potassium sulfate market has been strong for a long time, especially in June, and the spot ex-factory price of enterprises has increased significantly. The price of potassium sulfate was relatively stable in the first half of the month, and rose significantly in the second half of the month. At present, the supply side of the domestic potash fertilizer market continues to be tight. Among them, the quantity of potassium chloride delivered to the ship has decreased, and the output of domestic potash fertilizer has declined. The tight supply of potassium chloride and the high price directly benefit processing potassium sulfate enterprises to take the lead in raising spot prices. At the same time, large-scale traders are reluctant to sell, and the on-site supply is insufficient, which has multiple benefits to push up the domestic spot price of potassium sulfate. At present, the reference price of Shijiazhuang Hehe Chemical's 52% potassium sulfate powder ex-works is 4,500 yuan/ton. The ex-factory reference price of Chuanhua Qingshang Chemical's 50% powdered potassium sulfate powder was reported at 4,400 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic potash fertilizer market heats up, the price of potassium chloride strengthens, and the support for the cost of domestic potassium sulfate increases. The good cost side and the good supply of goods on the market are good, and enterprises and traders actively adjusted the increase. However, terminal companies have been slow to follow up, and the high-priced sources of goods have poor fluency. The pressure on the cost side does not match the consumption of end users, and it is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price may narrow the increase in the near future.
