Metallurgy / Chemicals / Rubber & Plastics

Let's take a look at rubber today. The trend of rubber in recent months is that it will fall below 13,000 if there is a disagreement, and then it will take a long time to rise. When can rubber get rid of this constant state of repetition?

Some people think that it is normal for longs and shorts to compete fiercely around 13000. It is not easy to judge where Ru is going now, and the possibility of falling to 12700 is not ruled out. Some believe that there is a chance for rubber to do more, probably after the 09 contract is out of the market, but the supply and demand of rubber will not be completely reversed in the last two or three years, so this increase will also be limited. I also think that the ru plate price of 13,000 is reasonable and realistic, and it will take a while. Please take a look at how to analyze it in detail.

Tong Changzheng:

Rubber has the opportunity to do more. My judgment is that it will probably be after the 09 contract is out of the market. That is the time at the end of September and early October. However, in the last two to three years, a complete reversal of the supply and demand side of rubber is unlikely to occur, so the range of this increase will also be limited. If there is no unexpected increase in demand, the 01 contract can probably return to the range of 15000-16000.

The possibility of rubber rebounding in the third and fourth quarters is mainly based on three reasons: 1 is the reduction of warehouse receipt pressure. After the 09 contract is delisted, it means that the old warehouse receipts will not affect the main force. New warehouse receipts for the 01 contract are limited, which is conducive to bullish gains. 2 is the seasonal law. If this trend can be delayed until November, it will usher in a domestic downtime. 3 is the expected improvement of tire exports. Overseas tire demand has always been there, but it has been suppressed because of high ocean freight. Therefore, if this part of the demand is released at a later stage, it may bring about a great improvement in the supply and demand of rubber.

Glue changer:

It is normal for longs and shorts to compete fiercely around 13000. It is not easy to judge where Ru will go now, and the possibility of falling to 12700 is not ruled out. As for the long-term holding of RU2201, it is not recommended to use long-term thinking to make rubber. The high premium cannot be afforded by retail investors.

Rubber is a typical type of contango structure. If the bulls want to exert their strength, they must pay attention to short, flat and fast, and fight for annihilation in a short period of time. Once a stalemate is formed, the probability of bulls winning is low. At present, the current price difference of Ru period is high, and the monthly price difference of NR is high. This is good for shorts. In addition to the fact that the absolute price of rubber is not high at present, the potential opportunity to go long is not big.

Yan Dong:

The big bottom has already been seen during the epidemic. More than 9,000 disks and 1,100 international standard rubber prices are the bottom. This price is unlikely to be seen in the future. In fact, this bottom was established in 2019. If there was no epidemic last year, the price would not fall below 10,000.

At present, the price of ru disk of 13,000 and the price of more than 1,600 international standard rubber are quite reasonable and fit the reality. It will take a while.

As for the 01 contract, in the fourth quarter, there may be a wave of weather, because the agency generally predicts that La Niña will return in the fourth quarter, and it will be speculated by then. It is not difficult to go to 16,000, but the big bull market is still difficult. Let's take it step by step. . Right now is the question of how to make the transition smoothly in 09.

Old Wei Yifan:

Rubber rubber can still be bought on dips. It is still a low valuation + tire operating rate is recovering. The space below is limited, but it is difficult to have a major trend in this position, so the best strategy is to divide the capital into two pieces, one is to buy on dips Hold, the capital position is about 5%, and the other 5% is for the mobile position. Now the price of glue is relatively strong, and the cost support is not weak, but the tapping is still relatively strong seasonal pressure, and the demand is also general. If you go up, you will level a part of the more orders, then go down and pick them up again.

In August, consider whether to move positions from 09 to 01 contracts.

Li Jianyao:

Natural rubber: lack of upward drive, continued disk volatility

1. On the supply side: Thailand has entered a period of increasing production, and the increase in supply has been released. Coupled with the impact of the sharp decline in the futures market, the purchase price of raw material glue in Thailand has continued to decline this week. The glue price this week was 41.5 baht/kg, down 3.2 baht/kg from last week. The price of Hainan glue is 12,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week-on-week. The price of Yunnan glue was 12,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis. In June, China imported 352,100 tons of natural rubber (including mixed rubber), an increase of 1.54% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 11.46%; the cumulative imports from January to June were 2.5512 million tons, a cumulative 3.9% year-on-year. Among them, the total import of mixed rubber was 1.42 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 7.93% year-on-year. The total import of standard rubber was 1.0881 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 23.46%. Thailand exported 2.249 million tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first half of the year, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year; total exports to China were 1.18 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15%.

2. Demand side: This week, the starting load of all-steel tires of tire companies in Shandong region was 62.75%, up 2.90 percentage points from last week, down 7.20 percentage points from the same period last year, and down 10.88 percentage points from the same period in 2019. The operating load of semi-steel tires was 58.65%, 2.27 percentage points higher than last week, 6.70 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 12.12 percentage points lower than the same period in 2019. Longzhong data shows: This week, the sample manufacturers' finished steel tire inventory days were 39.5 days, an increase of 1.1 days on a week-on-week basis; the semi-steel finished products inventory days were 39.64 days, an increase of 1.6 days on a week-on-month basis. The export of all-steel tires in June was 312,000 tons, an increase of 17.28% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 22.15%. The cumulative exports from January to June were 1.8 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 31.17%; the export of semi-steel tires in June was 199,000 tons, an increase of 13.3% month-on-month. , An increase of 36.94% year-on-year, and the cumulative exports from January to June were 1,135,500 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 40.77%.

3. In terms of inventory: As of July 19, the inventory of 16 samples of natural rubber general trade warehouses in Qingdao area was 416,800 tons, a decrease of 10,900 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 2.54%. Recently, there have been more shipments. The inventory of 17 samples in the region was 86,800 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons or 3.07% from the previous period. As of 07-23, Tianjiao warehouse receipts amounted to 177,270,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 880 tons. The total stock of the exchange was 193,886 tons, an increase of 3271 tons on a week-on-week basis. No. 20 plastic warehouse receipts amounted to 42,639 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 7,963 tons. The total stock of the exchange was 47,878 tons, a decrease of 4,680 tons on a week-on-week basis.

4. Analysis: This week, natural rubber fell sharply and then slowly repaired, and the price center of gravity dropped slightly compared with last week. From a fundamental point of view, the demand side is affected by a series of factors such as high tire inventory, hot weather, production restrictions, and shortage of workers. It is still obvious that manufacturers control production, and short-term operations are still difficult to improve.

Summary: At present, the rubber holdings are too large, non-standard is relatively large, and the holdings are too large. There are more variables. It will still squeeze the market. Last week, the rubber continued to fall below 13000 and rebounded slightly. The previous short orders have been All take profit, there is technically a need to fill up the gap, this week you can continue to hold short orders above 13,500, I think there is no time to go long.