Metallurgy / Chemicals / Rubber & Plastics

From 100,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 400,000 yuan/ton today, although the price has tripled in half a year, the shortage of lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) has not yet shown signs of improvement, and it has become a major player in the production of power battery companies. Big obstacle. Lithium hexafluorophosphate is the core material of the electrolyte, accounting for about 40% of the cost of the electrolyte.

"It's definitely not possible. Now it's not entirely a matter of price. You can't buy goods even with money." On August 4, the director of operations of a power battery company in Pingshan, Shenzhen introduced to reporters. It is understood that the company held a special meeting on the same day to discuss the supply of electrolyte.

"The tight supply situation will continue for some time." An interviewed brokerage researcher analyzed to reporters that throughout the first half of the year, the tight supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate and additive VC became the main bottleneck for the release of electrolyte production capacity. Although the major suppliers are increasing production and expansion, due to technical barriers and environmental protection requirements, the production cycle of lithium hexafluorophosphate and VC is delayed by about one year. It is expected that the tight balance of electrolyte supply will continue until next year.

Ningde era high prepayment guarantee

On August 3, Yongtai Technology disclosed that it signed a purchase agreement with Ningde Times, and Ningde Times will purchase lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium bisfluorosulfonimide (LIFSI) and vinylene carbonate (VC) products from the company.

According to the agreement, from July 31, 2021 to December 31, 2026, CATL will purchase a minimum of 24,150 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate from the company. As for lithium bisfluorosulfonimide, CATL’s minimum purchase amount within next year is 3550 tons, and the minimum purchase amount from 2023 to 2026 will be 80% of Yongtai's actual production capacity. In addition, after Yongtai Technology's vinylene carbonate is put into production and reaches a production capacity of 200 tons/month, the minimum purchase volume of the Ningde era during the agreement period will not be less than 200 tons/month.

The two parties agreed that within 10 days after the signing of the agreement, CATL shall prepay a total of 600 million yuan for products from Yongtai Technology.

"The advance payment of 600 million yuan is equivalent to financial assistance, and Yongtai Technology can be used to quickly increase production capacity to ensure supply." According to the analysis of the aforementioned brokerage researcher, if calculated at a 5% interest rate, the annual capital cost of 600 million yuan is about 30 million. Yuan.

According to the 2020 annual report of Yongtai Technology, the company's current production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate is about 2,000 tons/year, and the 6,000 tons/year project that has been expanded is expected to be put into operation before the end of 2021. In 2020, the operating income of Yongtai Technology's lithium battery materials segment will be 290 million yuan.

Before signing the purchase agreement with Yongtai Technology, CATL also signed a contract with Ningde Kaixin Battery Material Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Ningde Kaixin") in May this year. Within two years, Ningde Kaixin will supply lithium hexafluorophosphate to CATL The corresponding number of electrolyte products of 15,000 tons.

Ningde Kaixin is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tinci Materials, which is the leading electrolyte in China and even the world. In 2020, the shipment volume of electrolyte will exceed 73,000 tons. According to reports, CATL needs to pay 675 million yuan in advance to Ningde Kaixin.

"Long order" lock-up has become the norm in the industry

The leading Ningde era has to pay high prepayments to "grab the goods", which is evident in the tight supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate. Prior to this, many leading companies have adopted "long orders" to ensure supply.

On July 17, Fluoride announced that the company and its subsidiaries have successively signed lithium hexafluorophosphate sales contracts with BYD, Funeng Technology, and Enchem Co., Ltd.. The total orders involved nearly 10,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate, and the delivery period was concentrated in July this year. Until the end of 2022. Among them, BYD expects to purchase 6,460 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate, Funeng Technology will purchase 1,700 tons, and Enchem Co., Ltd. will purchase about 1,800 tons through Henan Nonferrous Metals under the subsidiary of Polyfluoro.

In addition, Xintai Materials, a subsidiary of Skyrim, signed a long-term order for lithium hexafluorophosphate with BYD. Among them, from July 2021 to December 2022, it will supply Shenzhen BYD with no less than 3,500 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate; in 2023, it will supply 3,600 to 7,800 tons. Production capacity will be negotiated again in December 2022.

Some international giants have also begun to "lock orders" with Chinese suppliers. On July 22, Jiujiang Tinci, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tinci Materials, signed an agreement with LG New Energy, stipulating that from the second half of 2021 to the end of 2023, LG New Energy will purchase 55,000 tons of electrolyte products from Jiujiang Tinci.

In the view of brokerage researchers, the prevalence of "long orders" indicates that market supply is tight, and large downstream customers hope to stabilize the supply chain through large contracts. In addition, the concentration of the electrolyte market is increasing day by day. The three leading companies such as Tianci Materials, Xinzhoubang and Jiangsu Guotai have been at the forefront of the market since 2019 and have a strong right to speak.

A few days ago, a securities firm issued a research report saying that, judging from the recent long-term orders of lithium hexafluorophosphate announced by various companies, the production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate on the market has been locked in a large amount, accounting for more than 70% of the total domestic production of lithium hexafluorophosphate.

Tight supply may continue until the end of next year

Why is lithium hexafluorophosphate so nervous? The rapid rise in demand is the main reason.

In the first half of this year, the increase in demand for new energy vehicles in the domestic and European markets led to the growth of power battery shipments, which in turn drove the increase in electrolyte shipments and exports.

Data show that my country's electrolyte output reached 183,500 tons in the first half of this year, an increase of 116% year-on-year, which is close to the output of the whole year of 2019. As the core material of the electrolyte, the output of lithium hexafluorophosphate in my country reached 21,320 tons in the first half of the year, which is close to the output of the whole year of 2019, and an increase of 134% compared to the same period in 2020.

The supply gap pushed prices up rapidly.

On August 4, the price of new domestic orders of lithium hexafluorophosphate generally ranged from 420,000 yuan to 430,000 yuan per ton, and the price of individual small orders rose to 450,000 yuan per ton. According to statistics, at the beginning of this year, the quotation of lithium hexafluorophosphate was still around 100,000 yuan per ton, and by the end of July this year, the quotation was generally around 400,000 yuan per ton.

"Lithium hexafluorophosphate projects have high investment intensity and a long production expansion period, generally requiring more than one and a half years." A related researcher from Changjiang Securities told reporters that due to the high barriers to entry in the industry, the new production capacity mainly depends on leading companies with mature technologies. The market will be in the short term. New production capacity is limited.

Some brokerages predict that the total demand for the lithium hexafluorophosphate industry in 2021 will be 65,000 tons, combined with the current market stock output, the gap will be 6,000 tons; in 2022, the gap will be 17,000 tons. With the successive commissioning of new production capacity by leading electrolyte companies in the second half of 2022, the tight market supply may be eased.