Metallurgy / Chemicals / Rubber & Plastics

The main rubber contract fell again after the Mid-Autumn Festival. In the third week of September, there was a narrow day-to-day upward trend, rising from around 13,300 to 13,780 yuan/ton, and then plummeting by 2% today, opening at 13,550 yuan/ton. .

Except for rubber opened lower, most of the other commodity futures also opened lower after the holiday. Iron ore plummeted 11% during the intraday trading. Since mid-July, iron ore has continued to fall, halting the peak of the year. Affected by this, related stocks have accelerated their decline, and the recent market value of Vale, the world's largest mine, has evaporated by nearly 250 billion yuan. At the same time, international crude oil and copper prices also plunged. The current fundamentals of rubber present a weak supply and demand situation. As of September 10, 2021, the Shanghai Futures Exchange has 232,180 tons of natural rubber stocks and 198,470 tons of warehouse receipts. There has been a significant increase in inventory, and the full latex spot is currently at 13,150 yuan/ton, and there has also been a continued decline. It is relatively fragile in itself. On the other hand, rubber is still under constant macroeconomic shocks, which has led to small increases in the past few days without strong support.

The news side has recently paid more attention to policy news. President Xi Jinping attended the general debate of the 76th United Nations General Assembly in Beijing on the 21st and made a presentation entitled "Strengthen Confidence, Overcome the Difficulties and Build a Better World". Speak. Xi Jinping emphasized to improve global environmental governance, actively respond to climate change, and build a community of human and natural life. Accelerate the green and low-carbon transition to achieve green recovery and development. China will strive to achieve carbon peaks by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. This requires hard work, but we will do our best. China will vigorously support the development of green and low-carbon energy in developing countries and will no longer build new overseas coal power projects. And since recent days, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have also jointly carried out supervision of energy supply and price stabilization.

Rubber is supported by costs and will not fall very sharply, and the current Southeast Asian epidemic still has a certain impact on upstream supply. There are some fundamental factors that are bullish, but the high domestic rubber inventory of 700,000 tons is still being digested. If there is a significant increase, In fact, it is still difficult.