Metallurgy / Chemicals / Rubber & Plastics

Recently, power rationing has added another province. The Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission and the Zhejiang Provincial Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Starting an Orderly Utilization Plan." The notice stated that in order to effectively cope with the power supply gap caused by the recent decrease in electricity from outside Zhejiang and the shortage of coal and natural gas resources for power generation, unreasonable demand for electricity must be curbed, and the 2021 Class B orderly electricity plan will be launched from September 28 to ensure The economy and society of the whole province are stable and orderly. Local Development and Reform Commissions (Energy Bureaus) should work with local power supply companies to complete the notice of users who do not implement the plan in the morning before 12 noon every day; for users who still exceed the target power consumption in the afternoon, go to the user site for power outages or remote control terminals. Implement power outage measures such as tripping.

On the same day, the Fujian Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the initiation of orderly power consumption, stating that there will be a 2 million kilowatt power gap in Fujian’s power supply from September 28 to 30, and a large power gap will also occur from October to December. In order to ensure the safe operation of the power grid, the "Plan for Orderly Utilization of Fujian Power Grid in 2021" approved by the provincial government in May this year was launched. From September 28th to 30th, from October 4th to 16th, the specific load regulation of each district and city The indicators are shown in the appendix. The subsequent orderly power load control indicators will be issued separately based on changes in load and power supply capacity.

According to the Coatings Purchasing Network, since the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology “named” the unqualified provinces and cities in terms of energy consumption and emissions at the end of August, in the past month, 20 provinces and autonomous regions have initiated varying degrees of electricity curtailment and production restriction measures. Among them, there are many major chemical provinces such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Anhui, Guangdong, etc. The production chain of various chemical products such as organic silicon, titanium dioxide, epichlorohydrin, etc. has been affected, the operating rate has dropped, and the market inventory has plummeted, which is based on supply and demand. The state of imbalance adds another fire.

Lithium hexafluorophosphate: soaring five times, the supply is in short supply

Lithium hexafluorophosphate is currently quoted at 450,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 543% from 70,000 yuan/ton in September last year. The current supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate in the market is in short supply, many companies are out of stock, and some companies have stopped quoting. Other companies choose to sell by gram, and the quotation is more than 800 yuan per catty, corresponding to 1.6 million yuan per ton. On Aibuy and Alibaba.com, the actual price of battery-grade lithium hexafluorophosphate is more than 1 million yuan/ton. However, even if you pay high cash, you cannot get 1 ton in stock.

Phosphoric acid: The increase over 150% in the month, the supply side is tightened

Phosphoric acid was quoted at RMB 19,300/ton, an increase of RMB 11,650 compared with the price of RMB 7,650/ton at the beginning of the month. The increase in the month was 152.29%, which was an increase of 296.98% compared with the same period last year. This month, phosphoric acid was driven by the rise in raw materials, enterprises started at a low level, and the supply side was tightened, which helped to support the continued price rise. At present, Jinan Qichen Chemical, Guangzhou Bangyi Chemical, Zhangzhou Xiangcheng Sanan Chemical, Henan Saiteng Environmental Technology, Jinan Jumao Chemical and other companies have quoted more than 20,000 yuan/ton, a record high in the past decade.

Silicone: Soaring 133%, money can’t buy goods

Silicone DMC is quoted at 60,000 yuan/ton, up more than 60% in the month. The bidding price broke new highs every day, with the highest quotation reaching 63,300 yuan/ton, more than 66,000 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, and more than 70,000 yuan/ton in some areas, an increase of 133% from about 30,000 yuan/ton a month ago. It is worth noting that such a high price may not be able to grab the goods.

Yellow Phosphorus: Many companies have no spot, and the price has increased by 116.87%

Recently, the price of yellow phosphorus has been rising continuously and has reached 63,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 103.8% on a week-on-week basis, an increase of 114.29% in 30 days, and an increase of 116.87% in 60 days. Industry insiders said that Yunnan took the lead in introducing a "dual control" policy, requiring a 90% reduction in yellow phosphorus production. *ST Chengxing’s four factories, namely Jiangyin Factory, Xuanwei Factory, Maitreya Factory, and Qinzhou Factory, have stopped production and reduced production, which is equivalent to about 80% of the domestic yellow phosphorus production capacity restriction. At present, Yunnan Pingbian Yellow Phosphorus Plant is temporarily not quoting, mainly for pre-orders; Yunnan Live Phosphating does not offer external quotations, but mainly for pre-orders; Sichuan Mabian Longtai Phosphorus Power is currently out of stock, and yellow phosphorus is temporarily not quoting.

Soda ash: orders have been scheduled until October, and prices have risen by nearly 30% and continue to hit new highs

The domestic soda ash market price continued to rise in September, continuing to hit a record high. The current average market price of light soda ash is 2977 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.21% compared to the previous month; the average market price of heavy soda ash is 3096 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.09% compared to the previous month. Affected by the dual control of energy consumption, some manufacturers in Jiangsu area started to stop the whole plant on the 17th. In addition, due to the impact of limited electricity in Guangdong, Henan, Hebei, Shandong and other places, some enterprises reduced their load production, and the overall soda ash enterprises stopped and reduced load more. The tight supply pattern has intensified. Some companies have received full orders in October, so they continue to seal orders or control orders, and manufacturers have strong intentions to increase prices.

MDI: Prices have risen by 26%, and the supply shortage is difficult to alleviate

Recently, MDI quoted at RMB 22,833/ton, an increase of 26% since the second half of the year. The negotiated price of Wanhua is around 22,500-23,000 yuan/ton, and the negotiated price of Shanghai Cargo is around 22,000-22500 yuan/ton. In September 2021, the listing price of aggregate MDI in BASF's distribution market was 23,000 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous month. The listing price of Shanghai Huntsman Polymeric MDI to distributors was 22,000 yuan/ton in September, which was an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous month. Due to the limited power supply, the load of Wanhua's installations has declined. From the perspective of the overall supply side, the domestic supply in the market has declined, and the overseas supply gap still exists.

Epichlorohydrin: The price rose by more than RMB 1,000/ton in the week, and the supply is generally tight and closed

The current offer price of epichlorohydrin is 21,400 yuan/ton, which is nearly 1,000 yuan higher than last week. The East China market was affected by the dual control policy. Epichlorohydrin was experiencing a phased imbalance in supply and demand, tight spot supply, and a very common situation of market closures, triggering market enthusiasm, especially in the Shandong market. In Jiangsu area, the 130,000-ton propylene process plant of Jiangsu Haixing was shut down, and the overall operating rate of the epichlorohydrin industry dropped to about 50%. The downstream rigid demand will not disappear. On the eve of National Day, the downstream is forced to accept high-priced raw materials.

Epoxy resins: major factories in Jiangsu and East China halted production due to load reduction, and the supply dropped sharply

Recently, the power outage in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, and the four epoxy resin factories in Suzhou were not spared all the suspension. An epoxy resin in Wuxi has long been "laying flat", and two epoxy resin factories in Suzhong have reduced their load. Not long ago, the downstream market was still waiting and waiting for low prices. It has been discovered that most epoxy resin companies have already closed the market and are not accepting orders. The large resin factories in East China have also reduced negative production, and the supply has plummeted. Traders have continued to soar the spot quotations on hand. It is reported that the resin downstream wind power industry is expected to have more than 50% more orders in the future than in September, and it may continue to increase. It is expected that the supply will continue to decrease in the short term.

Titanium dioxide: Many companies have been suspended and limited production, and customer orders will be placed until the end of the year

Recently, Jinpu Titanium Industry announced that the "dual energy consumption control" caused the production lines of Nanjing Titanium White Chemical Co., Ltd. and Xuzhou Titanium White Chemical Co., Ltd. to temporarily restrict and stop production. According to Ananda sources, the company’s Tongling plant has been notified of power curtailment. Huiyun Titanium Industry said that the curtailment of electricity has little effect on the company's production, but people familiar with the matter said that Huiyun Titanium Industry is still affected by certain production restrictions. The natural gas supply in Panzhihua, Sichuan will be suspended for 3 days from September 27th to 30th, and the titanium dioxide manufacturers in the Vanadium-Titanium Park will stop production within 3-4 days. Some major manufacturers reported that the supply of goods is very tight, and some major customers’ orders have reached the end of the year, and the delivery situation is very severe.

PVC: The operating rate is less than 70%, and the company does not offer quotations after closing

Since mid-September, the price of upstream calcium carbide has continued to hit new highs, raw materials are in a hurry, rising costs and tight supply sources have driven prices up. The overall start of calcium carbide in the northwest region is still low, and the supply is tight. Affected by this, the domestic mainstream ethylene-based PVC market continues to set new highs, and the market price in East China is referenced at 11850-11950 yuan/ton. Under the influence of power curtailment and dual control of energy consumption, the supply of ethylene-based PVC in East China is tight, traders are reluctant to sell, and some companies do not offer prices. The start-up of the calcium carbide process PVC plant was lowered, the operating rate was less than 70%, the supply was limited, the Shandong area was closed without quotation, the Sichuan area enterprises only talked, and the small orders were sold separately.

Trichloroethylene: The supply of the two major raw materials is tight, and most of the companies are closed without reporting

In Jining, Shandong, the supply of electricity is staggered, and the supply of liquid chlorine is not much; the calcium carbide products in Wuzhong, Inner Mongolia, and Shizuishan of Ningxia all have stopped and reduced the load, and the supply is seriously insufficient. The tight balance between the supply and demand of the above two raw materials has caused the price of trichloroethylene to rise, and the supply is very tight. At present, most manufacturers mainly deliver long-term orders, and the long-term orders are signed until eleven. Therefore, for the current inquiries, all manufacturers close the orders and do not report them.

Carbon black: The order has been scheduled to October, so it is difficult to purchase raw materials

In September, the environmental protection inspection in Shandong area affected the shutdown of certain silica production facilities in Dezhou and Weifang, and the production of scattered silica companies in Dongying reduced production. In the latter half of the year, local power cuts in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shandong were affected by soda ash and other raw material procurement difficulties. The silica industry Production load continues to decline, industry supply continues to shrink, and it is not easy to start the industry in a short period of time. Sporadic companies report that orders have been scheduled to the second half of October.

The "dual control" increase in energy consumption has been carried out for nearly a month. From partial production cuts and peak-shift power consumption to all production shutdowns and early holidays in some areas, the intensity has increased unabated, and it has become more and more intense. As previously predicted by the Coatings Purchasing Network, the major chemical provinces are all "invited", and the normal production of dozens of chemical products has also been restricted. In the current peak season of Golden, 9th, and 10th, there is no trend of overtime work. On the contrary, the downstream is anxious like ants on a hot pot. The raw material companies are as stable as Mount Tai. As the year-end "big exam" approaches, more and more regions have joined the "double limit" ranks, and chemical products will be polarized. One is that the supply of goods is scarce, and one ton is hard to find. The other is because the downstream is restricted, the demand is reduced, and the price will go down.