Under the influence of multiple factors such as dual energy consumption control and power curtailment, the supply and demand pattern of the chemical industry is imbalanced, and the prices of various chemical raw materials are rising. Statistics from Zhongyu Information show that since the beginning of this year, the prices of 50 categories of chemical products, including liquid chlorine, natural gas, caustic soda, and acetic acid, have risen to varying degrees. Among them, 16 categories of chemical raw materials have more than doubled during the year. .

"It has been especially obvious since September that the supply of hydrogen peroxide, sulfuric acid, hydrochloric acid and other raw materials that we need to use in our production process is sometimes not guaranteed, and the price has at least doubled this year." Mr. Li, the relevant person in charge of a textile company in Nantong ( (Pseudonym) revealed in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily.

The price increase is coming fiercely. During the interview, the reporter learned that a "butterfly effect" caused by rising raw material prices is spreading across the entire industry chain. Faced with the cost pressure brought about by the increase in raw material prices, mid- and downstream enterprises are in a dilemma between the "rising" and "not rising" of their products, and they are on the road of rising or already rising prices.

The contradiction between supply and demand is intensifying, and the price of raw materials is rising

In September of this year, Yunnan Province issued the "Notice on Resolutely Doing a Good Job in Dual Control of Energy Consumption", requiring that the average monthly output of the yellow phosphorus production line in the yellow phosphorus industry from September to December 2021 should not exceed 10% of the output in August 2021 ( That is to reduce production by 90%).

Under the influence of 90% of the production limit news, superimposed on the effects of low inventory levels, environmental protection inspections and power restrictions, the overall operating rate of the yellow phosphorus industry is at a low level, and the price has risen sharply in a short period of time. There was once an ultra-high price of 70,000 yuan/ton in the market. .

"It's not just yellow phosphorus, but the prices of chemical raw materials including propiconazole and glycine are rising." A deputy general manager of a fine chemical company in Nantong told reporters, "During the National Day, the yellow phosphorus market is priceless. The mainstream prices are temporarily stable. After the National Day holiday, most companies still have no quotations. Some companies offer 57,000 yuan/ton to 60,000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction is about 55,000 yuan per ton. It is a single agreement."

"Since this year, most chemical raw materials have been in this state. The rise and fall of commodity prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand. Under the two-high policy, the environmental protection requirements of chemical companies have become stricter, and the start of some small and medium-sized enterprises has been restricted. , The supply side is relatively tight or missing." Liu Dongyuan, director of the plasticizer industry chain of Zhongyu Information, told reporters.

On October 14, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that among the purchasing prices of industrial producers, the price of chemical raw materials rose by 20.7%.

The shock wave of price hikes conducts downstream price hikes to hedge cost pressures

"Upstream growth, we can only follow. The price of glyphosate has risen from the previous 20,000 yuan/ton to 70,000 yuan/ton. The domestic small and medium-sized enterprises in the glyphosate industry continue to withdraw their production capacity, and many existing glyphosate enterprises have full production facilities. The load is running, and the overall supply is tight." A deputy general manager of a fine chemical company in Nantong area told reporters.

"The price of raw materials has also been rising, which can be said to be'one price per day.' But because we participate in more public bidding projects, it is impossible to increase the price of the product at will. At present, there is no price increase. How long is hard to say." Xiao Wang, the sales manager of a pesticide manufacturer in Nantong, said in an interview with reporters.

The price increase of raw materials is tantamount to an industry "big test", which tests the influence of industry chain companies on channels and brand power in consumers' hearts.

"This round of price increases is conducted level by level. From raw materials to production process to end product prices are rising. This is different from the price increase of a certain link in the past. It is the industry chain from top to bottom. An'inflation wave'." A certain chemical industry practitioner in Guangzhou said in an interview.

“Raw material prices will rise, business costs will rise, and price increases are certain. However, in actual operation, the transmission of price increases in the industry chain is sometimes not smooth. Price increases for rigid demand and some high-frequency products are fine, but price increases for non-rigid demand will definitely be affected. Once the feeling of resistance arises, terminal demand will be suppressed." Liu Dongyuan told reporters that in the short term, a supply-demand relationship will not be eased quickly. This trend will continue at least into the first quarter of next year, and may be after the second quarter. It's getting better.

Speaking of the rise in raw materials, Pan Helin, Executive Dean of the Institute of Digital Economy, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily, “The current rise in raw materials is the result of multiple factors around the world, not a single dual control of energy consumption. As a result, while the upstream coal, oil, and natural gas energy prices are rising, the new energy industry cannot afford the huge energy demand. Under the background of not improving the supply side, a large amount of power demand has appeared on the demand side, resulting in a shortage of power. "

Pan Helin said, "Raw material prices will continue to rise, but it should not exceed the peak period of power consumption in winter. For companies, they must actively strive for production capacity. After all, under the background of low inventory, products produced The market is still relatively optimistic, and most market segments are in short supply. Electric power companies or large-scale industrial companies can take energy storage measures to manage power and increase power reserves during low power demand periods. In terms of raw materials, companies can use long-distance Period contracts and hedging to lock in cost prices."