Metallurgy / Chemicals / Rubber & Plastics

The RCEP agreement came into effect on January 1 this year, and temporarily involves 6 ASEAN member states (Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) and 4 non-ASEAN member states (China, Japan, New Zealand, Australia) , covering about 30% of the world's population, 30% of the total economic output and 30% of foreign trade, which marks the launch of the world's largest and most potential free trade zone in economic and trade.

According to the analysis of the Marketing Research Institute of Sinopec Economic and Technological Research Institute, in the short term, there are more than 100 tax items of plastics, rubber and their products whose tariffs have been reduced from the original base tax rate to zero this year. However, because these products are small varieties, The import and export volume is relatively limited, so it has little impact on the domestic rubber and plastics market. However, in the long run, the import value of my country's plastics, rubber and their products from the member countries of the RCEP agreement is far greater than the export value, and the rubber and plastics market will be greatly negatively affected. Taking advantage of this buffer period, my country's local enterprises should speed up industrial upgrading, actively deploy high-end products, strive for export dividends, enhance their ability to earn foreign exchange from exports, and reduce the impact of trade deficits on my country's rubber and plastics market.

In the short term, the import volume of rubber and plastic products with RCEP tariffs reduced to zero in 2022 will only account for 1.6% of my country's total rubber and plastic product imports, and its export volume will only account for 1.1% of my country's total rubber and plastic product exports.

According to the statistics of the tariff commitment table to China, if the import volume of plastics, rubber and their products in my country in 2021 is calculated, the import volume of products whose tariffs will be reduced to zero in 2022 under the RCEP agreement will be about 700,000 tons, and the import value will be 2 billion US dollars, which probably accounts for my country's plastics. , 1.6% of the import volume in the rubber field, and the import value accounts for 2%, which has a limited impact on my country's rubber and plastics market. The products involved are polypropylene (270,000 tons), acrylic polymer (52,000 tons), polyester (43,000 tons), polysulfide and polysulfone (60,000 tons), polyurethane (4.5 million tons) 10,000 tons) and polysiloxane (40,000 tons). The downstream fields involved in these products mainly include plastic packaging, coatings, electronic appliances, auto parts, wires and cables, silicone materials, etc. The countries that have the greatest impact on imports are South Korea and ASEAN member states. In 2022, it is estimated that my country will import 140,000 tons and 520,000 tons of rubber and plastic products from South Korea and ASEAN respectively, accounting for 0.3% of the total imports of plastic and rubber products. New Zealand and Australia have little impact on my country's imports.

According to the calculation of the export volume of plastics, rubber and their products in 2021, the export volume of products with tariff reduction to zero under the RCEP agreement in 2022 is about 560,000 tons, and the export value is 2 billion US dollars, accounting for about 1.1% of the export volume in the plastics and rubber fields. The proportion is 1.6%. The products involved are self-adhesive plastic adhesive boards, sheets, films, foils, etc. (90,000 tons), polyethylene terephthalate non-foamed plastic boards, sheets, films, etc. (65,000 tons), chlorine Non-foamed plastic sheets, sheets, films, foils and flat strips made of vinyl polymers (45,000 tons), polycarbonate (39,000 tons), polyurethane (38,000 tons), and petroleum resins, benzoic Furan resin (35,000 tons), etc. Among them, the ASEAN member countries have the greatest impact on export volume. In 2022, it is expected that my country will export about 470,000 tons of rubber and plastic products to the six ASEAN countries with zero tariffs, and the export value will reach 1.6 billion US dollars, accounting for 1% of the total exports in the plastics and rubber fields, and the export value accounts for 1.2%. Among them, Vietnam has the largest proportion, with an export volume of 320,000 tons. The countries with the least impact on export volumes are New Zealand and Australia. The downstream fields involved in these large export products mainly include electronic appliances, auto parts, packaging, construction and shoe materials.

◆In the long run, the implementation of RCEP will have a greater impact on my country's imports of plastics, rubber and their products, or will force industrial upgrading

In terms of imports, ASEAN member states, South Korea and Japan are the major import sources of plastics, rubber and their products in China. From January to October 2021, the import volume of plastics, rubber and their products in my country was 35.82 million tons, and the import value was 83.2 billion US dollars, of which imports from ASEAN, South Korea and Japan were 7.86 million tons, 5.23 million tons, and 2.15 million respectively. tons, accounting for 22%, 15%, and 6% respectively, totaling 43%. Imported rubber and plastic products are mainly primary raw material products (including many high-end chemical products), accounting for as high as 95%.

From the perspective of exports, from January to October 2021, the export volume of China's plastics and rubber products was 41.32 million tons, with an export value of 131 billion US dollars. Products accounted for 9%, 3% and 3% of the export volume of rubber and plastics, totaling 15%. my country exports less plastic, rubber and its products to Australia and New Zealand. Exported rubber and plastic products accounted for 70% of products.

Although RCEP has a positive impact on the import and export trade of petrochemical products, in general, for the member states of the RCEP agreement, my country's imports of plastics, rubber and their products are far greater than their exports, and China's imports of plastics and rubber from ASEAN, Japan and South Korea The proportion of other tax-deducted commodities is relatively large, and the RCEP is more likely to promote imports. According to the global trade analysis model (GTAP) and related data research, some scholars predict that the import and export of my country's rubber and plastic products are expected to increase by 2.92% and 1.75% respectively, which will increase the trade deficit of rubber and plastic products, and have a negative impact on domestic rubber and plastic products. The market has caused a large negative impact.

At present, there are still many high-end fine chemicals and new chemical materials in China that rely on imported resources, such as EVOH resin, EVA photovoltaic resin, metallocene polyolefin, POE resin, solution-polymerized styrene-butadiene rubber and hydrogenated nitrile rubber, etc. It is also the main source of imports of high-end chemical materials in my country. The signing of RCEP, on the one hand, will help domestic downstream enterprises to reduce procurement costs, but on the other hand, the output of domestic rubber and plastic products, especially upstream raw materials, will be restrained to a certain extent, and manufacturers will face greater competitive pressure. Or force the industry to upgrade.

my country's local enterprises should speed up industrial transformation and upgrading, improve the production technology and production capacity of high-tech additional products, and reduce external dependence; in high-end packaging, high-end coatings, high-end electronic appliances, auto parts and other downstream high-end application fields as soon as possible to achieve localization substitution; Focusing on the products that RCEP member countries have reduced tariffs to my country, based on external development, cultivate new growth points for exports, increase the diversification of my country's high-end chemical products, enhance the ability to earn foreign exchange from exports, and reduce the impact of trade deficits on my country's rubber and plastics market.