Metallurgy / Chemicals / Rubber & Plastics

According to the observation report of Huacheng import and export data, recently, the market frequently reported that silicon material enterprises signed large and long orders with downstream enterprises. It is not uncommon to see orders of 10 billion or even 100 billion, but the appeal of similar news has not weakened, which has repeatedly touched the hearts of investors.

First of all, it is necessary to clarify the problem that investors should pay more attention to the order quantity rather than the order amount. At present, the price of silicon material is at a 10-year high. In 2020, the price of silicon material will be only 60000 yuan/ton, which is 1/5 of the current price. The newly signed long orders are all volume locked, not price locked, so it is more meaningful to focus on the contracted volume; Moreover, the silicon material is also expanding rapidly, and it is within our reach to restore the normal price. The amount actually implemented is likely to be discounted from the announced amount.

The related problem is that the long order execution is not concentrated in one or two years, and the time span is very wide. For example, the execution period of the 150000 ton long order signed between Shuangliang Energy Saving and New Special Energy is 2023~2030, and the execution period of the 100 billion yuan long order signed between Jinko Energy and Tongwei is also from September this year to the end of 2026. From this point of view, the number of contracts signed in any year becomes more operational.

There is no doubt that silicon material manufacturers are at the best stage of profitability, which can be explained by several data. According to the observation report of Huacheng import and export data, in the first half of the year, the unit sales price (excluding tax) of silicon material was 213000 yuan/ton, while the unit cost was only 63140 yuan/ton; The gross profit rate of TBEA's new energy industry and projects in the first half of the year was 56.34%, with a year-on-year increase of more than 27 percentage points.

According to the observation report of Huacheng Import and Export Data, the current dynamic P/E ratio of silicon material listed companies is below 10 times or even lower, which is similar to that of ordinary chemical enterprises, meaning that the capital market does not give such companies too much growth premium.

Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation reported that the photovoltaic industry has signed long orders for a long time. Earlier, long orders locked both the quantity and the price, but this method had led to the collapse of giants; In the past two years, due to the shortage of silicon material supply, the voice of "holding silicon as the king" has become louder and louder, and the trend of "long single" has risen again. However, the current situation is that new and old players in the silicon material sector have significantly expanded production, and the silicon material price is expected to gradually return. This raises another question - why are downstream enterprises still keen to sign large and long orders when the silicon material supply is guaranteed in the future and even faces potential excess risks.

One possible reason is that although the silicon supply may grow rapidly in the future, it is difficult to accurately predict the demand for photovoltaic terminals. If the price of the future industrial chain falls, it may trigger the rapid growth of photovoltaic installations. If this happens, we need to pay attention to whether silicon and even other links will become bottlenecks in the development of the photovoltaic industry.

In addition, the reason why the downstream links are still competing for silicon materials may be due to the relative supply and demand between different links. From the relationship between silicon materials and downstream silicon chips and batteries, the silicon material production capacity is still relatively small, and the silicon chip production capacity is expanding faster. In this case, silicon chip manufacturers have the motivation to lock in silicon materials in advance to ensure their future operating rate.

There is another situation that needs to be paid attention to. In the long list of silicon materials signed recently, there are many new enterprises in both the silicon material end and the silicon chip end; Behind this, the binding between enterprises is very close, and the reasons behind it are also complex. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.