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According to the observation of Huacheng's import and export data, the profit of the pulp and paper industry chain will be concentrated upstream in 2022, and the price of pulp will remain high. The main logic is that the supply of coniferous pulp will decline, while the domestic paper production capacity will be increased after a large amount of wood pulp. In 2023, from the perspective of coniferous pulp supply and demand alone, this situation may be eased, but it is still not over. The supply and demand of broadleaf pulp will be further relaxed after the new capacity is put into operation to ease the tension of coniferous pulp supply. It is estimated that the average spot price of domestic coniferous pulp in 2023 will be 6400/ton, down 10%, and the operating range will be 5800-7500/ton. In terms of influencing factors and operating rhythm, in the first half of the year, we will look at overseas supply, and in the second half of the year, we will look at domestic demand, and the focus will gradually, The main bad news comes from overseas markets.

There is an increase in supply. The two broad-leaved pulp projects of Arauco and UPM will be put into operation as planned and are expected to reach production gradually. However, the new capacity of coniferous pulp is far less than that of broad-leaved pulp, and a series of "bizarre" events overseas in 2022 show that the supply end of coniferous pulp is complex. Therefore, in 2023, we still need to pay attention to the problem of supply disturbance, especially at the transportation and raw material ends. It is expected that there will be an increase in supply, but the scope remains to be observed, Domestic import increment or overseas diversion.

According to the observation of Huacheng's import and export data, domestic and foreign demand is expected to split. Foreign demand is not strong, and the decline in demand will continue until the third quarter. China's finished paper exports and European pulp demand will decline. Domestic demand is divided into two aspects. First, the rigid demand is still growing steadily. In 2023, there will still be more production capacity of cultural paper and white cardboard in China to support the rigid demand for wood pulp; Second, the lack of active replenishment demand in 2022 may be improved. The low start-up rate of manufacturers in 2022 is caused by the imbalance between the supply and demand of finished paper and the poor profit of the paper mill, which leads to the decline of pulp stock or speculative demand.

The domestic demand for finished paper is expected to improve in 2023. First, from the perspective of consumption capacity, the savings of the residential sector increased by 14.9 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2022, a record high. The central bank survey showed that the residents' willingness to save increased to 58%, and the proportion of planned consumption decreased to 23%. The epidemic and other uncertain factors led to a sharp decline in residents' willingness to consume, and savings increased significantly, while the negative impact of the epidemic and economic downturn weakened, The savings accumulated by residents are expected to be released; Second, from the perspective of consumption will, the change of epidemic prevention policy is expected to gradually restore social vitality, and the real estate industry may gradually bottomed out and improve under the policy stimulus. The probability of the domestic economy bottoming out and stabilizing and strengthening is increased, which may stimulate the situation of consumption will rise. Huacheng Import and Export Data is observed and reported.

From the perspective of valuation, pulp is at a historical high, and pulp is more likely to be a post-cycle commodity. It is expected that the major risk in 2023 will come from the weakness of overseas economy and the decline of demand. However, the difference in the concentration of the industrial chain will still give pulp an advantage in pricing. Therefore, the downward range of valuation should still be carefully predicted. The decline of pulp valuation may be completed in the form of time for space. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.

From the domestic supply and demand balance table of wood pulp, the growth rate of supply and demand in 2023 may not differ much, and the supply increment is slightly higher than the demand. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.