Packaging / Advertising & Office

According to the observation report of Huacheng Import and Export Data, the European port inventory and the global inventory days are both in a state of high accumulation. Coincidentally, the domestic pulp port inventory is also at the mid-year high level. However, the spot market price of domestic pulp has entered a downward stage, with the coniferous pulp falling by nearly 1% in the week and the broadleaf pulp falling by nearly 3% in the week. Can the pulp market, which is "down and down", still usher in a turning point in the industry?

The global volume of commodity pulp shipments weakened, and the number of days in stock showed a high level, and the Chinese market operated under pressure

According to the observation report of Huacheng Import and Export Data, the total shipments of W20 commodity pulp suppliers in the world in January decreased by 13.0% compared with December last year and by 8.3% compared with the average shipments in 2022. The latest W20 global commercial pulp shipments have significantly decreased, reflecting the weak global pulp market, which is difficult to support the recent pulp price trend.

According to the observation report of Huacheng Import and Export Data, the inventory days of W20 commodity pulp suppliers at the end of January were 48 days, an increase of 4 days compared with December last year, and an increase of 5.8 days compared with the average inventory days last month. The global W20 commercial pulp inventory accumulated at a high level, and the superimposed volume of shipments fell on a month-on-month basis, reflecting the poor demand of the global pulp and paper downstream industry. As the world's major pulp consumption market, China's import dependence in the past five years is as high as 65%. Later, more commercial pulp may be sent to the Chinese market, further undermining the pulp price trend.

Domestic finished paper inventory accumulated in the range, and limited support for pulp market

After February, the capacity utilization rate of pulp downstream base paper manufacturers turned from low to high, and the inventory of enterprises in the industry gradually accumulated. As of last Thursday, the inventory of white cardboard enterprises increased by 60000 tons compared with the average monthly inventory in January; The inventory of double-adhesive paper enterprises increased by 50000 tons compared with the average monthly inventory in January; The inventory of domestic paper enterprises increased by 80000 tons compared with the average monthly inventory in January. Huacheng import and export data observation report.

The inventory of pulp downstream base paper manufacturers is significantly accumulated, and the market terminal demand is poor, resulting in the general enthusiasm of some base paper manufacturers for raw material procurement, basically in the state of "pick as you use", the pulp consumption is basically weak, and the pulp market support is limited.

Lunzhong's view: coniferous pulp stabilized and fluctuated, maintaining 6550-7000/ton, while broadleaf pulp fell in a narrow range, maintaining 5500-5700/ton.

The main reason is that the latest international external market continues to be quoted at a high level. The new round of external market silver star quotation of coniferous pulp in March was 920 US dollars/ton, totaling about 7250 yuan/ton, supporting the trend of pulp spot price.

Second, the US dollar price of broadleaf pulp was lowered again. The broadleaf pulp quoted in the latest March was 730 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from the previous round, which was negative for its future trend. In addition, at the end of March, Uruguay's UPM 2.1 million tons of eucalyptus pulp is expected to be put into production, which will further explore the trend of the spot price of broadleaf pulp. Huacheng's import and export data observation report.