Packaging / Advertising & Office

According to the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report, in March, the waste paper market fell sharply, hitting a record low price all the way. However, in the middle and late March, the decline of waste paper slowed down, with some rising slightly. However, under the overall downward trend of the paper industry this year, can the waste paper market recover?

1、 Market Review

According to Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation, since 2023, the price of waste yellow board paper in China has been declining all the way down. Pushing directly towards the 1500 mark is both a lack of demand and an impact of import tariffs. Turning to the middle and late March, the price of waste yellow board paper stopped falling and stabilized, with some rebounding slightly, showing a trend of shock consolidation. The main reason is that the recycling capacity of the packaging station is limited at this stage. In addition, due to the general shipping mood, some packaging station operators have a desire to increase their prices and deliberately slow down the shipping speed, resulting in a decline in the overall arrival volume of the market. In the event of insufficient inventory of paper enterprises' raw materials, they have to increase prices to absorb goods. However, how long can this price increase last?

2、 Downstream finished paper situation

If you want to explore the price trend of waste paper, let's take a look at the situation of finished paper. As can be seen from the above figure, both corrugated paper and box board paper have shown a continuous downward trend since the beginning of the new year. And just as the price of waste paper has just stopped falling and stabilized, with a slight rebound, various bases in Jiulong have again lowered the price of base paper this weekend, reaching as high as 180 per ton. In addition, paper companies have issued shutdown letters, and there are wheel stops in various regions. This has made waste paper, originally known as "small lotus with sharp corners," feel breathing space and once again fall into a panic situation. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation reports.

3、 Aftermarket mentality

According to Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation, as of this week, most market participants have the largest proportion of bearish attitudes towards the future market; 5% of market participants hold bullish expectations for the future market; 40% of market participants hold stable expectations; 55% of market participants hold bearish expectations.

Currently, the arrival of paper enterprises is relatively low, and some of them are less than daily demand, so 5% of market participants are bullish; The waste paper market is weak in both supply and demand. In order to ensure the commencement of construction, paper companies may stabilize the purchase price of waste paper, so 40% of market participants are stable; Large-scale paper companies have lowered their original paper prices again, and terminal demand continues to languish, making it difficult to have a significant rebound in the short term. Therefore, 55% of market participants are bearish.

To sum up, market players still have a negative attitude towards the future market. Under the condition of weak supply and demand in the market, short-term paper companies may increase their prices slightly to attract goods, but in the long run. "The space for increasing the price of waste paper is still limited, and it is recommended that the industry operate cautiously. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.".