Packaging / Advertising & Office

The factory has no orders, and the price of base paper is crazy! Since the beginning of the new year, the base paper market seems to have completely deviated from the script of packaging paper giants such as Jiulong and Shanying. The price of paper has been falling constantly, with continuous downtime.

Looking back, the price of white card paper has experienced a downward trend for up to two years, and the downward trend of cow card, white board, and high tile has also lasted for nearly a year and a half. This is a situation that has never occurred in the past 40 years of reform and opening up.

It is reported that the export volume of international trade has decreased by 40%, indicating a serious economic situation abroad. Recently, it has been reported that many foreign banks have closed down. As soon as this news comes out, it means that when we in the manufacturing industry think that it is wrong to expect the economy to recover after getting through the mask time, which proves that there is still a "big wave" coming. It's not easy to sift through masks for three years and find those who have been struggling to continue their business. The data shows that 40% of the data is still the previous data, and the current environment will be even more severe than the previous data. Of course, this is just my personal opinion. When I saw the news of the collapse of a foreign bank, I noticed a comment and said, "What's the matter with my 3000 salary?" I wanted to tell him that just because the foreign bank failed, it is likely to lead to his unemployment or even salary reduction.

From the perspective of both manufacturing and international trade, it is clear how much domestic manufacturing accounts for international trade exports, and how important foreign trade is for the survival of enterprises. I cannot provide this data for the time being, but I can clearly tell you that domestic manufacturing accounts for a large proportion of international trade exports, even exceeding 60%. That is to say, the economic situation abroad will have a chain reaction, which is why during the mask period, it has been proposed to build an internal economic cycle in China as soon as possible. But the formation of this economic inner cycle is not easy. There is not much time for companies to find sales channels. Or to put it simply, what is the preferred solution for reducing enterprise orders? "It's about opening up resources and cutting costs. Only by reducing unnecessary expenditures and ensuring survival can enterprises continue to provide jobs.".

From reports of thunderstorms at multiple foreign banks, the struggle between China and the United States in trade, and the transfer of international trade orders to Southeast Asia, the uncertainty of the international situation has deeply affected the business environment. I still remember Ren Zhengfei's previous statement that the global economy will face recession and declining consumption capacity. Huawei should change its thinking and business policies, shifting from pursuing scale to pursuing profit and cash flow, to ensure that it can weather the crisis of the next three years. "The chill" may not have spread to everyone at the beginning, but it is believed that many manufacturing friends are aware that this year's situation is more severe than before.

"The pursuit of profit and cash flow is what business owners aspire to achieve. However, in general, in the domestic manufacturing industry," cash is king "all want to achieve monthly settlement businesses, but this method of payment is pitifully rare.". Due to "internal involvement", the struggle between industries is very intense.

Carton packaging is suitable for transportation in most manufacturing industries, which means that carton packaging has a wide range of industries, including electronics, hardware, clothing, toys, furniture, electrical appliances, and so on. Looking at the economy from the perspective of the carton packaging market is not an exaggeration. The order volume of the carton packaging industry can reflect the overall economic situation of the manufacturing industry. From the current market situation, we can see that the price of paperboard is between decline and stability. Why would I say between decline and stability? The reason for the decline is that the current market order volume is shrinking, and the order volume is not ideal. The reason for the stability is that upstream enterprises have decided to plan to shut down and reduce production due to very weak demand for order volume. I believe that friends who have some knowledge of the base paper industry, base paper is controlled by large enterprises. The shutdown and production reduction are aimed at responding to the stock of base paper in the market, which in disguised form creates a tight market and hardens the price. If there is a question as to whether prices will rise, the probability of rising is very low according to the current domestic and foreign economic situations. It was difficult for the market to be short of paper in those days, and if it reappeared, it would be "artificial layout".

Nowadays, the price of waste paper is very low, and relatively few people will recycle it. If there is a shortage of paper in the market again, the downstream carton packaging factories, as we understand them, will have a difficult time surviving this year. Due to three years of capital turnover, sustained environmental costs, various expenses, delayed payment for goods, reduced orders, and excessive competition among peers, carton factories are generally in a difficult state, compared to other industries.

It is expected that in the next few months of production, there will be little hope of a reversal in paper prices due to the dual pressure of price reduction transmitted from the terminal and the continued contraction of orders. However, the pressure faced by paper mills in terms of energy, labor, tax, and logistics costs has not eased. Only by lowering the prices of domestic waste and pulp can paper mills maintain a balance of profit and loss or reduce losses. Therefore, it is expected that domestic waste will continue to decline significantly, and the downward range of pulp will further increase.