Packaging / Advertising & Office

Today, let’s talk about the trend of the next base paper.

The black cloud is overwhelming the city, and the mountain and rain are going to be full of wind. It is not an exaggeration to use these two poems to describe the current paper industry market. Similarly, it is not an exaggeration to describe the current manufacturing industry. After a period of consolidation, the market has reached a new point of change. You should settle down and think about the trend of paper prices.

Taking into account that the 618 in the past few years has been quite obvious to the packaging, and even directly changed the trend of the base paper, therefore, it is necessary to conduct a review of this year's 618.

According to the monitoring data of the State Post Bureau, during the "618" event this year (June 1-20), the industry received more than 6.59 billion express mails, a year-on-year increase of 24.24%, indicating that express packaging is still a market worth relying on. However, compared with last year’s 48% increase, this year’s 24% increase is still slightly flat. It also reflects that the proportion of online shopping has greatly increased, and ordinary people are becoming more and more unable to buy.

With the sharp drop in online home appliances in May, this year's 618 offline home appliance market has overturned, and online home appliance sales generally fell short of expectations. The Securities Daily reported that many heads of home appliance companies stated that "no matter how strong the promotion is, there will be no sales."

The home appliance industry is sluggish, and consumption of household products such as furniture, lighting, hardware, and bedding is naturally not much better. In addition, the sales of large paper consumers such as food, beverages, liquor and beer are also quite weak. Although the Z generation relies on nibbles to prop up the mobile phone, beauty and other markets, the demand for base paper for these products is after all small.

Therefore, this time 618 is nothing more than a waterloo for many merchants, and it also puts the current paper prices under pressure.

Since domestic demand is not enough, let's take a look at the export packaging and printing market that supports most of the base paper market. In the past 9 months, the price increase of raw materials, exchange rate and ocean freight have severely eroded the profit margins of export traders, resulting in a loneliness for export companies, and their enthusiasm has been greatly frustrated. Some traders have begun to find ways to transfer orders to Vietnam. , India and other low-cost markets, even directly rejecting orders, which has directly led to the slump of export orders in recent times. I have to say that we are still a little bit bigger in terms of the competitiveness of the export processing industry chain.

Due to the lower than expected domestic demand and export orders, warehouse explosions in paper mills and secondary factories are more common, and the willingness to purchase raw paper is too weak, and the price of industrial raw paper is facing greater downward pressure.

From June 18th to June 24th, the average weekly price of A-grade 250g gray-bottomed whiteboard paper was 4750 yuan/ton including tax, a year-on-year increase of 27.01%. The average price of 250-400g sheet white cardboard market including tax was 7164.29 yuan/ton, down 8.61% month-on-month and up 35.47% year-on-year. On the 24th, the ex-factory price of Guangdong Lee & Man's 65-180g high-strength corrugated paper including tax was reported at 4500-4960 yuan/ton. On the 24th, the factory price of Taicang Nine Dragons 60-170 Nine Dragons tile paper including tax was 4150-5300 yuan/ton. On the 25th, the ex-factory price of Dongguan Nine Dragons 50-180g Nine Dragons high-watts including tax was 4530-5210 yuan/ton. However, this is only a paper price, and the actual transaction price may be lower. The high-wattage of some paper mills in Guangdong generally fell below 4,000 yuan, and the ex-factory price of some paper mills, excluding tax, was even as low as 3,250 yuan/ton.

The current market orders are weakening, the second-tier factories have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the long-term crazy hype of domestic base paper has caused massive social stocks to accumulate in the intermediate links. There is even a blowout of imported base paper. It is expected that cardboard, corrugated base paper, white board paper, and white cardboard are expected. The market will continue to fluctuate downward.

Even more terminal brand owners have basically failed to transfer costs to downstream, paper packaging companies will face greater pressure to cut prices, and vicious competition in the industry is inevitable. The rebound of raw materials may be far away.

The editor believes that due to inventory explosions, upstream paper mills will have to reduce prices to reduce inventory pressure. At the same time, downtime for maintenance will become a common phenomenon. The frequency of downtime for maintenance in the second half of the year is not less than 2018.

There is no end under the nest, and the price of raw paper fluctuates downward or it will crush the seemingly strong national scrap price...