Packaging / Advertising & Office

1. The price trend of raw materials

In the past week, the trend of tile paper and boxboard paper was generally stable, the demand was weak, and some paper merchants offered price cuts. White cards, copper cards, etc. remain weak. It remains to be seen whether the price increase letter of 500 yuan/ton on July 15 can reverse the downward trend. This week, the paper mills focused on price stabilization, but the inventory pressure is increasing. Next week, it is expected that paper prices will remain vulnerable to falling but not rising.

This week, corrugated paper and cardboard paper went up and down. According to data from the business agency, the reference price of corrugated paper last week was 3615.00, starting from 7/7 2021, it has dropped by 1.364% in 9 days. According to Zhuochuang's monitoring data, the national weekly average price of corrugated paper this week was 4,095 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from last week, an increase of 0.29% and a year-on-year increase of 12.65%. Last week, Nine Dragons' price increase of 50 yuan/ton was declared to be unsuccessful, and the actual order fell within a narrow range. According to Zhuochuang's monitoring data, the national weekly average price of containerboard this week was 5137 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton from last week's average price, a 0.33% month-on-month increase and a year-on-year increase of 14.32%. Business agency data shows that some paper merchants have a 50 yuan/ton reduction from last week.

Last week, domestic Takamatsu white cardboard prices were generally around 7,000 yuan, imported more than 10,000, some paper merchants were as low as around 6,000, and individual paper types dropped to 5,800, approaching the low of 5,300 last year. This week, white card manufacturers announced the price increase letter half a month in advance, releasing a strong signal to protect the market. However, downstream demand is weak, and white card prices are expected to remain low next week.

Plastics and plastics prices are generally stable this week, with little volatility, light transactions, resistance to merchant shipments, and real orders have room for profit. The Zhuochuang Plastic Film Index was at a high of 1078 and weakened slightly over the weekend. The plastic price index of the business community operated steadily. Next week, supported by the rising price of raw calcium carbide, the price of plastics will remain stable.

2. Market order analysis

After 618, orders in the domestic market were obviously slack. An important sign is that cardboard factories cut prices and grab orders. It is a fact that there are currently fewer orders.

After seasonal adjustments, my country's total import and export value in June increased by 18.6% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 14.7% and exports increased by 5% month-on-month. However, competitor India performed even brighter, with a net increase of US$32.5 billion in exports in June, a year-on-year increase of 48.3%. It shows that the export orders of the two countries have benefited from the "substitution effect". Now the production in Europe and the United States has basically resumed, and the export orders have reached the top and have fallen back.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 15th, the total retail sales of consumer goods in June was 3758.6 billion yuan, an increase of 12.1% year-on-year; an increase of 10.0% over June 2019, and the two-year average growth rate was 4.9%. Excluding price factors, total retail sales of consumer goods in June 2021 increased by 9.8% in real terms, an average growth of 3.2% in two years. From a month-on-month perspective, the total retail sales of consumer goods in June increased by 0.7%. Taking into account the overdraft effect of 618 on consumption, July may have a negative growth.

3. The impact of the macroeconomic situation

On the morning of July 16, the Bureau of Statistics announced the economic performance report for the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, GDP increased by 12.7% year-on-year. In the second quarter, GDP increased by 7.9% year-on-year, which was lower than the expected 8.5%, and the growth rate was 18.3% in the first quarter. Fell sharply. Although affected by the base effect, the trend of slowing recovery cannot be ignored.

Considering that vaccines in major economies such as Europe and the United States have achieved better results, production has gradually recovered, and the "substitution effect" has weakened. Coupled with the rising tide of commodity prices, the production costs of enterprises have been pushed up, squeezing the profitability of mid- and downstream enterprises, and the export competitive advantage has gradually decreased. The new export order index has fallen for three consecutive months, and has been below the line of prosperity and decline in the past two months. In addition, the West has blew a vicious wind against China in the retrospect of the virus. The United States, Australia, and very few areas of the European continent have seen actions to boycott Chinese goods, which are worthy of attention.

On the 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in the first half of the year, the national per capita disposable income of residents was 17,642 yuan, a nominal increase of 12.6% over the same period of the previous year. After deducting price factors, the actual increase was 12.0%; the national per capita consumption expenditure was 11,471 yuan, a nominal increase over the same period last year. An increase of 18.0%, after deducting price factors, an actual increase of 17.4%. From January to May of 2021, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 1,7431.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%, and the two-year average growth rate was 4.3%. Although this data is at odds with most people's intuitive feelings, it shows from the side that market liquidity is temporarily worry-free, and at least there will be no major decline in consumption within the year. In general, consumption will be less and less, but the price will be higher and higher.