Packaging / Advertising & Office

In mid-August, the packaging raw material market is surging. The legendary golden nine silver ten days are coming. The paper industry market seems to have reached a watershed again. At present, many paper mill owners are extremely anxious. There are no orders and the price of paper is rising. This may be the beginning of another round of reshuffle.

Upstream paper mills have increased inventory pressure, and secondary mills have a deep wait-and-see mood and cautiously enter the market. After the beginning of the month, the paper market once again oscillated and fluctuated. Since August, packaging paper has undergone two rounds of upward adjustments, totaling about 200-250 yuan/ton. However, domestic consumption remains sluggish, export growth has slowed rapidly, and the entire paper industry market is in a state of semi-stop. As a result, the price increase since August has been reduced to an empty increase, and the trading atmosphere is quite lackluster.

"Buy up" failed. I don't know if "promotions" will come. Because the rising cost of raw materials has been unable to pass on, the days of paper packaging are getting harder and harder!

Beginning this month, Nine Dragons Mountain Eagles will each raise two rounds

Tianjin Nine Dragons will be shipped from the warehouse at 24:00 on August 12, and the ox card, recycled containerboard and corrugated will be raised by 100 yuan/ton. This is the second increase in Tianjin Nine Dragons this month, with a cumulative increase of 300 yuan! At the same time, several other major Nine Dragons bases, including Chongqing and Taicang, all officially announced price increases, with an increase of 50-150 yuan, of which:

Taicang Nine Dragons Paper: The price of ox card is raised by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of other containerboard corrugated paper is raised by 50 yuan/ton.

Chongqing Nine Dragons Paper: The price of ox card and recycled cardboard paper increased by RMB 150/ton, and the price of corrugated paper increased by RMB 100/ton.

Shenyang Nine Dragons Paper: The price of Hailong Niu Card and Dilong Niu Card increased by RMB 100/ton, and the price of recycled containerboard and corrugated paper increased by RMB 150/ton.

On August 1, Shanying Paper will increase the linerboard series (yew, silver fir, red fir, T paper) produced by the original price by 100/ton.

On August 11, Shanying Paper once again increased the company’s liner paper series (yew, silver fir, red cedar, T paper), corrugated paper, and white paper series (Jingui, Siji Gui) on the basis of the original price. 100 yuan.

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Secondary factory: buy raw paper as you use it, stop production if it doesn't have it

Compared with the increase in the price of base paper, the second-tier factories have a greater impact on the paper packaging market. The paper packaging industry is greatly affected by consumption. This year, the overall orders show the characteristics of being strong in the outside world and in the middle.

In July, August and September of previous years, due to Halloween and Christmas orders superimposed on Double Eleven orders, the traditional peak season of the paper packaging industry was formed. However, since 2018, since Southeast Asia and India have divided a large number of orders for shoes and clothing, toys, electronics, electrical appliances, and mobile phones, and domestic sales have been suppressed by the real estate industry, the peak season has become a legend.

This year's situation is even different. On the one hand, the epidemic has reduced residents' income and the real estate industry has become more suffocated. On the other hand, export orders have been overdrawn early, and the Fed has begun to recover liquidity, and export orders are showing signs of shrinking.

The price of base paper is directly related to the cost of production. Every time the price of raw materials fluctuates, paper mills must think about the issue of hoarding paper, because a successful base paper operation can bring millions to tens of millions of yuan to the enterprise Varying profit changes.

In Qingming and May Day this year, the second-tier factories overestimated the prosperity of the market. After a large number of purchases, they encountered a decline in paper prices, which led to price inversions in some companies. In the face of a new round of price increases, some packaging companies with few orders no longer chase the rise and fall, and the inventory is enough.

"Recent orders are obviously not as good as before, and the base paper is at a high level. If there is no order, all the stocks are purchased. The inventory cost is extremely high, and it may be a loss," said a second-level factory owner.

However, due to the high concentration of upstream raw paper production capacity, nearly 60% of paper mills are optimistic about the rise in paper prices, and the second-tier mills with loose funds still plan to stock up raw paper.

For the paper product industry, the biggest problem with stockpiling raw paper is not the fear of excessively high inventories and falling paper prices, but the lack of funds caused by the difficulty in collecting receivables. After a long period of hemorrhage, terminal enterprises with relatively poor downstream strength have been unable to sustain themselves.

But relative to the next few years, this year is the best year, so be prepared.