Packaging / Advertising & Office

The WTO released the latest issue of the Goods Trade Barometer. Global international trade goods continued to grow in the second quarter, but at a slower pace than the first. The global volume of internationally traded goods is expected to grow by 3.0% in 2022, but there are many uncertainties.

The Goods Trade Barometer is a comprehensive leading indicator of world trade. By collecting statistics on trade in goods, it provides early signals on the current development trends and inflection points of world trade in goods, and is updated quarterly to match the barometer of trade in services. The latest reading, at 100, was in line with the index's benchmark, indicating that global growth in internationally traded goods was in-line.

However, the overall barometer is still lower than the companion index representing the actual volume of trade in goods, suggesting that year-on-year trade growth may slow further, but the overall picture remains positive after the official statistics for the second quarter. Global international trade has been boosted by both the impact of the conflict in Russia and Ukraine and the lifting of China's embargo on the new crown epidemic.

According to the earlier data, the overall trade volume of goods has stabilized. The slowdown in the year-on-year growth rate to 3.2% in the first quarter of this year only partly reflects the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that erupted in late February.

The WTO said the various components of the cargo barometer were mixed, with most indices showing growth at or below trend. The forward-looking export orders index (100.1) was in-trend but has turned down. The Auto Products Index (99.0) is only slightly below trend but has lost its upward momentum. The Air Freight Index (96.9) and Electronic Components Index (95.6) were below trend and pointed to the downside, while the Raw Materials Index (101.0) was slightly above trend recently. The main exception is the container shipping index (103.2), which is firmly above the uptrend. Because of the relaxation of the new crown prevention and control measures, shipments through Chinese ports have increased.

The latest barometer readings are in line with last April's WTO trade forecast, which projected world merchandise trade volumes to grow by 3.0% in 2022. However, uncertainty surrounding this forecast has grown due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, rising inflationary pressures, and the expected tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies. The revised forecast will be released in early October.