Packaging / Advertising & Office

According to Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report, pulp prices fluctuated at a high level in August. In the first half of this month, under the influence of the macro-political situation, the risk aversion sentiment in the commodity market has appeared, and the trend is weak under the influence of .

In the middle stage, the sample inventory of domestic mainstream ports has changed from destocking to accumulating stockpiles, and the expected pulp price, which is superimposed on the lowering of external quotations, has fallen to the low of this month. In the second half of the year, the international pulp shipments were slowly repaired and the newly added 1.56 million tons of hardwood pulp production capacity was postponed again. Under the tight supply in the spot market, the pulp rebounded quickly and maintained a high and volatile trend.

Chile's Arauco announced the face price in September 2022: Coniferous Pulp Silver Star $970/ton; Hardwood Pulp Star $885/ton; True Color Pulp Gold Star $870/ton. The price of softwood pulp was lowered by US$40/ton, and the price of hardwood pulp and natural pulp remained stable.

Under the circumstance that the tradable spot is tight, the near-month contract has rebounded more strongly than the far-month contract. The price of the 09 contract has exceeded the high point at the beginning of the month, and the inter-month price difference has further increased.

The global coniferous and hardwood pulp shipments and inventory trends have diverged. According to PPPC, the shipments of softwood pulp in the world's 20 major pulp-producing countries in July were 1.85 million tons, an increase of 2.09% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 2.13%; the shipment of hardwood pulp was 2.21 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 14.1% and a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. %.

According to import and export data, the global commercial chemical pulp shipment volume and production capacity ratio decreased significantly, down 9.91% from the previous month and 0.46% from the same period last year. An increase of 2 days, unchanged from the same period last year; 43 days for hardwood pulp, an increase of 3 days from the previous month, and a decrease of 4 days from the same period last year.

my country's pulp imports maintained a downward trend. Import and export data show that in July, my country imported 2.18 million tons of pulp, down 7.2% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year. From January to July, my country's imported pulp decreased by 6.2% year-on-year.

According to the import and export data, in terms of varieties, the import of soft-leaf pulp in July was 533,100 tons, down 5% month-on-month and down 24.4% year-on-year; the import of hardwood pulp was 905,300 tons, down 9.3% month-on-month and up 8.3% year-on-year.

In July, port inventories changed from falling to rising. According to incomplete statistics, as of the end of August, pulp stocks in Changshu Port and Baoding were about 1.766 million tons, an increase of 4.2% over the previous month and an increase of 1.4% over the same period last year. Among them, Qingdao Port increased by 0.6% from the previous month, Changshu Port increased by 12.1%, and Baoding decreased by 10.6%.

According to the import and export data, the global printing and writing demand both decreased year-on-year. According to PPPC, the global demand for non-coated machine-made paper fell by 5.1% in June, down 9.1% year-on-year; the demand for coated machine-made paper increased by 0.5% month-on-month, down 15.4% year-on-year. The total demand for these two types of machine-made paper decreased by 2.5% month-on-month and 12.2% year-on-year.

The output of my country's machine-made paper in July fell more sharply than the previous month. From January to July, the output of machine-made paper and cardboard in my country decreased by 0.9% year-on-year. Among them, the output in July was 11.2253 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.3%. The overall trend was similar to last year.

The inventories of my country's paper and paper products industry and the inventories of finished products continued to increase. In July, the inventory of the paper and paper products industry increased by 9.9% year-on-year and 10.9% month-on-month; the finished product inventory increased by 14.7% year-on-year and 16% month-on-month.

In terms of white cardboard: some leading whiteboard enterprises in the south still have plans to switch to white cardboard, and the market supply pressure is too large. In August, the output of white cardboard decreased by 2.72% from the previous month, and the operating load rate decreased by 3.4 percentage points from the previous month. Domestic traditional festival orders are sparse, some downstream operations are insufficient, and the overall market demand is weak.

In terms of household paper: At present, paper companies are slowly recovering, and the construction in many places is still insufficient. In August, the domestic production of tissue paper increased by 3.46% from the previous month, and the operating load rate increased by 1.65 percentage points from the previous month. With the increase in sales promotion and market stocking in the second half of the year, the demand side is expected to gradually recover.

In terms of double-adhesive paper: the order of paper mills was mediocre, and downstream dealers’ transactions were limited, and inventory pressure increased. In August, the operating load rate of double-adhesive paper production enterprises was 57.73%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points from the previous month. Some social orders have been released in the opening season, but the increment may not be much. We will pay attention to the subsequent demand release.

In terms of double copper paper: affected by the shutdown of some production lines at the end of the month, the pressure on corporate inventory has eased. In August, the operating load rate of coated paper production enterprises was 58.67%, a decrease of 3.57 percentage points from the previous month. The demand side has not seen obvious positive, and the market is waiting for the publication of tender orders in November.

The immediate gross profit of white cardboard dropped significantly. From January to July, the total profit of the paper and paper products industry decreased by 45.2% year-on-year. In terms of products, in August, the immediate gross profit of white cardboard declined significantly, the immediate gross profit of cultural paper fluctuated and weakened, and the immediate gross profit of household paper improved.

In September, the commodity market was still under pressure from the Fed to raise interest rates. Currently, the U.S. dollar index continues to refresh its previous highs, and the macro level is still bearish. In the short term, the recovery of global pulp shipments is relatively slow, the spot basis is relatively tight, and the high price of pulp is still supported. In the mid-term, with the gradual decline of external quotations and the gradual recovery of domestic imports, pulp may return to the downward trend.

If the superimposed peak season demand fails, there may be a low point for the year. In the long run, with the expansion of global production capacity and the weakening of international demand, the downward trend of pulp prices will remain unchanged.