Apparel / Textiles & Accessories

Since the first half of this year, the fundamentals of supply and demand in the polyester market have been eye-catching, especially in the polyester and polyester industry, which has not only swept away the decline in market prices, but also oversold polyester and polyester factories. Although the inventory of polyester polyester factories is lower than that of the same period last year, polyester polyester factories are not at ease, because this round of downstream factories buying large amounts of raw materials, not because the orders improved significantly in the second half of the year, but because...

From mid-February to early March, and from mid-May to the end of June, although cloth merchants would buy cloth at these two time points in previous years, this year is especially so, using the adjectives of industry people to express: crazy and unpredictable. To put it briefly, after mid-February, when crude oil flew into the sky, cloth merchants took the opportunity to receive cloth at low prices, which caused the inventory of factory grey fabrics to drop sharply. After mid-May, they were optimistic about terminal orders and chemical fiber prices in the second half of the year. During the period, Southeast Asia orders did return to a certain extent, and weaving autumn and winter orders were also started in advance. However, more atmosphere came from cloth dealers’ inquiries and orders, resulting in a "prosperous" scene in the market. In fact, the terminal clothing has not been opened up to now. Large-scale signing model, especially autumn and winter orders.

With the deepening of the off-season, the problem of weaving again has become a problem for enterprises at this stage. From the data, it is found that the load of looms in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to around 74%, a decrease from July. With the gradual decline in the market, grey fabric inventory showed an upward trend, and the inventory days returned to a high level. The load of looms in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to around 74%, and the orders of warp knitting factories in Haining, Zhejiang continued to decrease. Most of the factories were unable to level the production and sales. The high inventory of grey fabrics squeezed the cash flow, and the load of the looms of most factories will reach 5-8%. , The stock of grey fabrics in local mainstream warp knitting factories rose to 25-45 days. The Jiangsu area is still greatly affected by the epidemic prevention and control, the transportation of grey fabrics is not smooth, and the weaving factories continue to accumulate, which is currently close to a high of about 40 days. At present, the domestic market is slow to start, and new orders are placed very slowly. At the same time, due to the increase in ocean freight prices and the lack of containers, foreign trade orders are also relatively cautious. In order to cope with this problem, weaving manufacturers have recently heard that some manufacturers have already reduced production and lower start operations.

It can be said that the last round of prosperity only transferred the stocks of the polyester factories in the early stage to the downstream, but when the downstream is all stocks, the subsequent transfer channel will not be so smooth!

Therefore, in the off-season in August, the equipment should be overhauled in a timely manner, and the off-season inventory can be controlled within a reasonable range, so that the polyester factory will not be too passive in the next time.

Sure enough, due to low polyester profits and high inventories recently, polyester factories are under pressure, and some companies have begun to reduce production one after another. It is understood that the domestic mainstream polyester factories Tongkun, Xinfengming, Hengyi, and Tiansheng all plan to reduce production by around 20%, with a total reduction of about 4 million tons, and the recovery time is yet to be determined. At the same time, some other polyester companies have successively announced production reduction plans. At present, the production capacity of 4.536 million tons is involved in parking and production reduction. The market outlook does not rule out that other domestic companies with relatively high inventories also have production reduction plans. Then the output of the domestic polyester industry will decline significantly. It is expected that the output of the industry will be at the level of 1.00-11.1 million tons after the load is reduced, and the load will be lower than 86%. Afterwards, small and medium-sized enterprises will follow up, and the load may be reduced to around 83%.

List of recent polyester production reductions

All in all, the market is currently facing a game between supply and demand, especially the overhaul on the supply side. In addition, the demand side is recovering after September, but the supply side is facing the accumulation of inventory pressure, so whether the supply side is really overhauled to relieve the market supply pressure is the focus of attention. According to the previous announcement of maintenance expectations, the maintenance efforts are relatively concentrated, which may cause a phased mismatch of supply and demand, which may drive the market upward in the future.