Apparel / Textiles & Accessories

Since September, the production and sales of polyester filament have been sluggish, corporate inventories have continued to increase, and the frequency of promotion has accelerated. However, terminal demand has been sluggish, user procurement efforts have been weak, and the production and sales data of polyester filament has been poor. But going back to the upstream of polyester yarn, the recent trend of crude oil, PTA, ethylene glycol and other commodities has been continuously rising, forming a polyester industry chain with hot and cold at the top.

Although the weak market sentiment in the next year has restricted the rise in the polyester yarn market, the upstream crude oil, PTA, ethylene glycol and other commodities are on the rise. At the same time, some favorable factors have begun to be released this week. Under this situation, many industry professionals predict In the future, polyester raw materials such as polyester filament will show a phased improvement.

Intensive maintenance of multiple devices

PTA ushered in obvious price support

Recently, as crude oil stabilized and rebounded, PTA still fell sharply. The 2201 contract fell to 4736 yuan/ton at the lowest, resulting in severe squeezing of profits on the production side, and the entire PTA industry was facing substantial losses. Based on historical experience analysis, this situation is unsustainable. Recently, good news on the PTA side has been frequently released. Superimposed on the increase in upstream overhauls from September to October and the improvement in the supply and demand structure, PTA is expected to usher in a rebound.

With the restart of the Zhongtai and Sanfangxiang installations last week, the PTA load has recovered from a low level to a neutral level. However, from September to November, the PTA production end will once again usher in centralized maintenance, including Hengli, Yisheng, Tongkun, Honggang and The total overhaul capacity of Fujian Baihong and other enterprises exceeds 10 million tons. In late September, Liaoyang Petrochemical's 280,000-ton line will be overhauled for 10 days. At the end of September, a 2.25 million-ton line of Hengli Petrochemical will usher in overhaul. Fujia Dahua will overhaul the 1.4-million-ton line in early October for 45 days. As Hengli Line 5 will be overhauled on October 8, Line 3 will be overhauled in late October, and Honggang Petrochemical’s 1.5 million tons will be overhauled in October, the supply side is expected to shrink more strongly, as the industry has a relatively high degree of concentration. For the industry, this move will have a significant supporting effect on PTA prices.

Production of multiple sets of polyester filament yarns reduced

The polyester end shows signs of stabilization

Compared with the polyester operating rate maintained at around 90% in the previous period, the polyester operating rate recently dropped to 84% and then rebounded to around 87%. The main reason for the decline in the polyester operating rate was the filament end. In August, the manufacturers reached a consensus on limiting production. The operating rate of medium filaments has decreased. With the increase in sales during the week, the stock of filament yarns has declined marginally in the past two weeks. After experiencing a sharp decline in the operating rate of weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the operating rate has maintained stability in the near future.

Relevant data shows that the price of polyester seems to have stabilized. Judging from the recent sales promotion, the promotion has been reduced by 200-400 yuan, and there has been a callback in recent days. On the 14th, the multiple sets of polyester filament yarn installations under the background of national dual control, frequent news of production reduction, Shenghong's Spring Festival equipment maintenance increase plan, Huaya reduced the load by 2-3%, and the suspension of a filament device in Sanfangxiang, etc. , Boost the market atmosphere. The supply-side reduction and the raw material-side atmosphere is warmer, and several major polyester filament yarn factories in Zhejiang announced measures to increase FDY by 100. In other words, despite the promotion, the price of polyester filaments has fluctuated and stabilized in recent times, and there has been no significant change. Therefore, the promotion of polyester yarns has not had much impact on future prices.

At present, the polyester load is maintained at around 87.7%. After the previous promotion and production reduction, the inventory pressure of polyester factories has been relieved to a certain extent. The inventory of conventional products has declined for two consecutive weeks. The current inventory of POY, DTY and FDY is 13.4 days and 24.5 Days and 23.6 days, except for FDY, the rest of the products dropped to a neutral level.

Affected by the surge in ocean freight in the early stage, foreign trade orders have been overdrawn in advance. Recently, it is understood that orders in the domestic market are showing signs of improvement, and some winter orders are gradually placed. There is still a peak season expected at the end of September. The second half of the year will be dominated by domestic demand, and market consumer demand is worth looking forward to. However, considering that polyester profits have not improved significantly, ocean freight rates have broken the pace of orders in previous years, and the aftermath of consumption reduction caused by the epidemic is still there, the sustainability of polyester production and sales needs more downstream data to confirm each other.