Apparel / Textiles & Accessories

Recently, multiple sets of polyester filament yarn devices are under the background of national dual control, and news of production reduction has been frequently issued. The supply side reduction and the raw material end have recovered. The polyester filament yarn manufacturers have started to increase prices one after another, boosting the market atmosphere!

On September 16, after the preliminary promotion of polyester filament yarn, some polyester factories cancelled the discount and raised the price again!

The price of polyester yarn in a major factory in Zhejiang will be raised by 300 yuan/ton for POY and 200 yuan/ton for FDY;

A major factory in Fujian will raise 100-200 yuan/ton for polyester yarn;

The price of polyester yarn at a large plant in Xiaoshan increased by RMB 50-100/ton;

A major manufacturer of polyester yarn in Shengze, Jiangsu has a bright increase of 100 yuan/ton;

...

Polyester filament has been raised for the second time since the last promotion. The price of the 150-300 promotion that day has risen back in just 3 days.

At present, domestic weaving orders have improved slightly. Winter warmth, down jackets and other fabrics are still available, but most of them are domestic trade orders. The number of new orders for branded clothing is limited. It is reported that most factories are There are still certain expectations. Therefore, the market outlook does not rule out that under the expectation that weaving orders will improve, the polyester end will also be expected to pick up.

Production cut in August and promotion in September

Reduce inventory to meet the peak season

Since late August, due to the continuous compression of cash flow and high inventory levels of factories, some companies have gradually begun to reduce production and load, and the operating rate has continued to decline. According to understanding, in August, the four leading domestic polyester factories jointly reduced their production. 20% of the production capacity, while other small and medium-sized factories in Xiaoshan, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo, and Huzhou have also reduced production to varying degrees, involving a production capacity of 5.139 million tons. As for the downstream in the off-season in August, the overall weaving market in the early stage has shown a weak trend. This is the reason why most of the weaving companies have not responded to the promotion of polyester yarn since August.

However, entering September, filament factories in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and other regions took the lead in launching sales promotion. The production and sales rate of mainstream manufacturers was 200%-800%. After that, the industry carried out various degrees of promotion. As of the week of September 13, the industry inventory has been It is at the center of history. Although the polyester end has been partially restarted, but due to the influence of the dual control, the enterprises that have reduced the negative still exist. As of September 16, the polyester operating rate fell to around 84.67%. With the successive placing of orders for the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten", polyester filament yarns are expected to usher in a business cycle under the low-warehouse environment.

"Golden Nine Silver Ten" does not need to be pessimistic

Seasonal rigid demand is expected to be gradually released

Affected by factors such as insufficient export capacity and increased shipping costs, most of the original Q3 export orders were placed in advance to Q2. We believe that the overall seasonal rigid demand effect of the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” has weakened, but the textile industry is different due to the influence of fashion trends In line with the requirements of timeliness, most of the pre-orders are for standard products such as warp-knitted grey fabrics. Orders for knitted garments are limited in advance. As of the week of September 13, the operating rate of downstream looms was 72%, +2% from last week. , Downstream demand rebounded moderately, and seasonal rigid demand is expected to be gradually released.

In addition, due to the impact of insufficient shipping capacity, next year's "Golden Three Silver Four" small market orders are expected to be placed 2-3 months ahead of schedule. Downstream companies will re-enter the warehouse preparation stage, and the market is expected to continue in Q4.

With strong support from the cost side, the recent market atmosphere for polyester filament yarns has been warmer. Considering that downstream weaving has been moderately replenishment and the inventory pressure of the factory during the double festival period may restrict the floating space of polyester filament yarns, it is expected that if the raw materials do not fall significantly in the short term, Depending on the inventory and specifications, polyester filaments are still expected to rise.