Apparel / Textiles & Accessories

At present, the energy consumption "dual control" policy is being promoted in many parts of the country, and Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other provinces have imposed restrictions on power consumption and shutdown of high-energy-consuming industries. The editor hereby reminds everyone that a new round of raw material price fluctuations is spreading in the current textile industry!

According to price monitoring, in the 38th week of 2021 (9.20-9.24), there are 7 commodities in the textile sector that have increased month-on-month in the commodity price list. The top 3 commodities are PTA (4.02%) and nylon FDY (0.76%). , Polyester staple fiber (0.65%). There are 5 kinds of commodities that have dropped from the previous month. The top 3 products are viscose staple fiber (-2.57%), rayon yarn (-2.01%), and cotton yarn 21S (-1.78%). The average increase and decrease last week was -0.05%.

Not afraid of downstream production reduction, the polyester chain continues to heat up

Recently, with the successive introduction of "dual control" policies in various places, it has had a greater impact on the supply of high energy-consuming industries. As far as the polyester industry chain is concerned, "dual control" has a certain impact on upstream and downstream links.

From the perspective of the energy consumption of each link in the polyester industry chain, the energy consumption of each link in the polyester industry chain is, from high to low, terminal weaving, polyester, coal-based MEG, oil-based MEG, and PTA. The “dual-control” energy consumption in Jiangsu area was lit with a “red light”, and the control upgrade began in mid-September; the “dual-control” energy consumption in Zhejiang area was lit with a “yellow light”, and the control was significantly upgraded in late September. As the PTA production capacity in Jiangsu area is 11.24 million tons and the ethylene glycol production capacity is 2.98 million tons, the PTA production capacity in Zhejiang area is 20.45 million tons and the ethylene glycol production capacity is 2.85 million tons, which account for a relatively large proportion. The market is also paying close attention to PTA and MEG in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Device dynamics.

On the first day after the Mid-Autumn Festival, news of printing and dyeing parking in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets circulated in the market. In addition to downstream weaving, printing and dyeing, the start of polyester plants was also affected. Tiansheng, Hengming, Jinxin, and Juxing had a total production capacity of 2.5 million tons. , The overall production limit is around 50%, but some companies have moderately reduced production in the early stage. In addition, some medium and large texturing enterprises and chip spinning enterprises are also involved in production restrictions.

Yangzi Petrochemical’s 650,000-ton plant was overhauled on the evening of September 22 until after the National Day; Honggang Petrochemical’s 1.5-million-ton plant began overhaul on September 14 and the entire 2.4 million tons capacity was overhauled on September 14. The restart time is yet to be determined; Hengli Dalian 2.2 million tons will be overhauled on September 19, and the restart time is yet to be determined. At the same time, supplier Hengli Petrochemical's supply in October decreased by 30%, superimposing the high oil price to stabilize, which became an opportunity for the PTA to rebound.

MEG is more affected by "dual control" than PTA, mainly due to the high energy consumption of coal chemical industry and low load; under the tightening of "dual control" policy, low MEG port inventory, and the expected production limit of satellite devices, MEG's recent growth rate is higher than that of PTA. PTA and staple fiber. In terms of staple fiber, due to the high energy consumption of staple fiber, and the production capacity is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Fujian, and Zhejiang, it is greatly affected by the "dual control". The short-term short-term direct-spun polyester short-term supply is tight.

The polyester filament market has recently oscillated and adjusted. The mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have preferential sales at the beginning of the week. The price has been cautiously followed up with the boost of raw materials. Last week, the overall price fluctuated and warmed up. Tons, an increase of 0.61%, polyester FDY (150D/96F) and polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) increased by 0.54% and 0.55% respectively.

The impact of dual control on the terminal has turned around

Demand pressure is expected to be relieved

Based on the above, some textile raw materials products have strong performance under the support of favorable cost and supply. In addition, in the early stage of Jiangsu and Zhejiang "dual control of energy consumption" upgrade, chemical fiber weaving enterprises have curtailed electricity, and the load on the loom will further decline. However, the impact of dual control on the terminal has turned around recently:

(1) Following the impact of Nantong's dual control in the previous period, Shaoxing Keqiao also imposed power-limiting measures for printing and dyeing plants and polyester plants on September 21, and texturing enterprises were also involved. The polyester operating rate is further expected to drop to 84%.

(2) There was a turnaround on September 23, and some dyeing factories in Shaoxing notified workers to return to the factory in the afternoon, requiring them to return to the factory on the 25th. According to an emergency notice from the superior, the original suspension of production and holiday time has changed.

In terms of exports, the continuous increase in ocean freight, the lengthened transportation turnaround time, and the increase in logistics costs have led to shrinking overseas orders for textiles and garments. The downstream market has a strong sentiment and is cautious about the purchase of raw materials. It is expected that as the winter orders are placed one after another, the double "11" and the Christmas season approach, the demand pressure is expected to be relieved.