Auto & Transportation

According to data released by the Automobile Market Research Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association (the Passenger Association) a few days ago, in July, the passenger car market retail sales reached 1.5 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, and an increase of 1% compared to July 2019. The high base pressure in the second half of the year is reflected. At the same time, retail sales fell by 4.9% month-on-month in July. The relevant person in charge of the Union said that the growth rate of this data and the average monthly month-on-month comparison of previous years is relatively normal, and it is better after removing abnormal factors.

Demand for consumption upgrades is still strong

"After the epidemic has improved, the world's auto supply and demand gaps are temporarily under greater pressure. Insufficient international chip supply and uncertainty have caused some Chinese auto companies to reduce production and lose more. In recent months, some auto companies have seen a sharp drop in wholesale sales, which has led to joint ventures. The imbalance in the entry and exit of auto dealers, the mismatch of order demand and existing inventory, etc., are transmitted to the retail terminal, resulting in weak retail." The above-mentioned person in charge of the Association said.

From January to July this year, the total retail sales of the passenger car market reached 11.445 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22.9% and a decrease of 6 percentage points from the growth rate from January to June. It is understood that the reason for the super strong retail growth from January to July is mainly due to the low base effect of the cumulative decline of 19% in the national passenger vehicle market from January to July 2020, followed by the increasing contribution of new energy vehicles to the growth of 1 The year-on-year growth rate in July contributed 10 percentage points.

Specifically, 200,000 luxury cars were retailed in July, a year-on-year decrease of 18% and a month-on-month decrease of 21%, but an increase of 7% compared to July 2019. Luxury car sales continue to maintain structural stability, and high-end trade-in demand that reflects consumption upgrades is still strong, and competition has little impact.

Self-owned brand retail sales of 640,000 vehicles, an increase of 20% year-on-year, an increase of 5% month-on-month, and an increase of 23% compared to July 2019. The market share of self-owned brand wholesale was 45.4%, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and the domestic retail market share was 42.5%, a year-on-year increase of 9%. The industry chain of leading self-owned brand companies has strong resilience, effectively resolving the pressure of chip shortages, and turning disadvantages into advantages. The sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly, and multiple brands have shown high growth year-on-year.

The retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands were 670,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 19%, a month-on-month decrease of 7%, and a decrease of 15% from July 2019. The retail share of Japanese brands in July was 23.0%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6 percentage points. The retail share of the US market reached 9.1%, a decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, showing a good performance. The German brands are still in the stage of adjustment and gaining momentum due to the huge supply gap.

In addition, data from the Federation of Passenger Vehicles shows that this year, the passenger car market has significantly destocked, and manufacturers' inventories have remained low in recent months. At the end of July, the manufacturer’s inventory increased by 20,000 units from the previous month, and the channel inventory decreased by 120,000 units from the previous month. From January to July, the manufacturer’s inventory decreased by 220,000 units. Characteristics.

August sales may reverse the trend

Entering August, on the one hand, traditional vehicle sales are off-season with hot weather, and on the other hand, demand for private cars has increased due to the need for epidemic prevention and control. The demand for passenger cars may buck the trend.

The relevant person in charge of the Federation of Travel Industry said that compared with August last year, there is one more working day in August this year, which is conducive to the increase in production and sales. The high temperature holidays of some car companies are concentrated in the first ten days of August, and the production department also concentrates on holidays when the chips are insufficient. At the same time, the outbreak occurred in different regions in late July, which has a certain impact on the production and living order of some traditional automobile industrial towns, or increases the pressure on the supply of insurance in August, which may also affect the sales rhythm of the August auto market in some regions. .

But at the same time, the above-mentioned person in charge believes that under the situation of continuous epidemic prevention and control, passenger car travel has also become a guarantee of travel safety. The demand for the second car of the family such as the purchase of a car to transport children to and from school is even stronger, and the demand for replacement and additional purchases will drive the new car and second-hand car market to continue to strengthen.

Since the second quarter, the demand for car purchases has been relatively strong, which has boosted the popularity of the terminal market. At present, channel inventory is at an extremely low level. The delayed delivery of orders due to factors such as the epidemic situation and insufficient capacity in the early stage will dilute the impact of the traditional off-season in the market in July. "The anti-monopoly investigations carried out by relevant state departments on chips are conducive to improving the order of chip supply, accumulating the delivery of retail orders, and also conducive to the increase in the wholesale increase in the inventory cycle from August to October. If uncertain factors such as overseas epidemics improve, The production of auto companies will strengthen significantly, and the increase in new products suppressed in the early stage will also drive the auto market to strengthen in August." The person in charge said.

It is worth mentioning that the State Administration for Market Regulation recently announced a new version of the "Three Guarantees" policy of the "Regulations on Responsibility for Repair, Replacement and Return of Household Auto Products", which will be implemented on January 1, 2022.

The relevant person in charge of the Travel Federation stated that the new three-guarantee policy for family car products has perfected the provisions for handling the disputed focus of the original three-guarantee regulations, and protected the interests of consumers and enterprises. In particular, many consumers do not understand the "Three Guarantees" policy, and many retailers love to take advantage of the policy loopholes, which makes it more difficult for ordinary consumers to protect their rights. Therefore, the relevant policies have been refined and improved this time. At the same time, the new three guarantees policy adapts to the current trend of rapid growth in sales and ownership of new energy vehicles, and private users becoming the main purchasing force. It is a necessary measure to protect the legitimate rights and interests of auto consumers in keeping with the times.