Auto & Transportation

Since the beginning of this year, the shortage of chips has been plagued by the auto industry, and many domestic and foreign auto companies have repeatedly cut production or even stopped production. Recently, due to repeated epidemics in Southeast Asia, the shortage of automotive chips has further intensified. Many auto companies such as Toyota, Volkswagen, Ford, and General Motors have reduced car production in different regions of the world. At the same time, the domestic auto market was also affected by the shortage of chips, and sales declined for three consecutive months. The analysis agency believes that the shortage of chips in the automotive industry may last for a long time. To fundamentally solve the problem of automotive chips, long-term deployment, system advancement, and improvement of the entire industry chain level are required to support the high-quality development of the automotive and semiconductor industries.

Automobile "core shortage" intensifies

Affected by the rebound of the epidemic in Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia, global chip supply shortages have further intensified. Toyota, Volkswagen, Ford, GM and many other multinational auto companies have recently announced production cuts.

On August 19, Toyota Motor said that due to the shortage of automotive chips, it plans to cut its global production by 40% in September, and the global production scale will reach about 360,000 vehicles. The two factories of Volkswagen's Audi brand in Germany have extended the summer break by one week. Ford also announced that due to a shortage of related parts such as chips, it temporarily closed its plant in Kansas City, USA. The famous Russian car manufacturer Volga Automobile Factory announced that it will suspend production of three car production lines at the Togliatti factory from August 23 due to a lack of automotive electronic components. In addition, due to the shortage of chips, many car companies said that production will still be affected in the next few months. Volkswagen said its production in the third quarter was affected, while BMW expects that the uncertainty of future production will continue.

Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, introduced that there are many chip factories in Malaysia, which directly affect the production of parts and components of international semiconductor giants such as Bosch, thereby affecting the pace of automobile production.

With the rapid development of automobile electrification and intelligence, the demand for chips is also increasing. Relevant research shows that the current average chip content of each car is 350 US dollars, pure electric vehicles can reach 770 US dollars, and high-end electric vehicles can exceed 1500 US dollars, which is 5 to 6 times that of basic types of cars. Analysts believe that the shortage of chips may cause the global auto industry to lose 110 billion U.S. dollars. This year, global auto production may drop by about 5 million vehicles.

The domestic automobile market is inevitably affected by the shortage of chips. The latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that in July this year, the production and sales of automobiles were 1.863 million and 1.864 million, down 15.5% and 11.9% year-on-year, and down 4.1% and 7.5% month-on-month. In the first seven months of this year, the production and sales of automobiles were 14.44 million and 14.756 million vehicles, up 17.2% and 19.3% year-on-year, respectively. The growth rate continued to drop by 7 and 6.3 percentage points from the previous six months.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said that the shortage of chips is an important reason for the decline in automobile production and sales. According to data compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers based on the ten-day reports of 11 key automobile enterprises, in early August, 11 key enterprises completed the production of 312,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 34%. It is predicted that the shortage of chips may cause domestic auto companies to reduce production by 500,000 to 700,000 vehicles in August. The relevant agencies predict that the impact of the shortage of chips on the domestic automobile industry will continue into the spring of next year.

Trigger a chain reaction

Starting from the end of 2020, the global automotive chip supply and demand will be out of balance. The shortage of automotive chip supply and the unclear recovery cycle have brought about a series of chain reactions such as the rise of terminal prices in the automotive market, and the hoarding of chip distributors and high prices.

According to reports, among all types of chips, micro-control unit chips are most in short supply. Engines, airbags, anti-lock braking systems, bodywork, advanced driver assistance systems, etc. all need these types of chips. A car is equipped with hundreds of micro-controllers. The control unit chip, the lack of a chip affects the production of the entire car, which is the main reason why the car is out of stock.

Beginning in May this year, the normalized trend of increased promotions in the automobile market has been reversed into a contraction in sales. The decline in sales in July has been particularly pronounced. Reducing sales promotion has gradually become the common choice of all auto companies, and the average sales price in the auto market has increased. Many dealers said that in the case of very tight supply, the preferential power in the next few months will not be increased as in previous years, and the price of some models is even more than 20,000 to 30,000 yuan last year.

Affected by the epidemic, some automakers are trying to maximize the value of production by selling cars with the highest profit margins. This has also led to structural adjustments in the production and sales of many auto companies, and some auto companies have differentiated treatment in the supply of resources in different regions.

At the same time, with the shortage of chips, chip prices have also risen continuously recently. The prices of mainstream channels have risen by 5 to 10 times, while the prices of non-mainstream channels may even have risen by 10 to 20 times. Many distributors have also begun to hoard and drive up prices. Affected by panic psychology, chip orders are also increasing, and many companies place orders 1 to 3 times more than the original.

In response to this, the State Administration for Market Regulation has recently introduced measures to address outstanding issues such as hype and high prices in the automotive chip market, and file investigations into automotive chip distributors suspected of driving up prices. The State Administration of Market Supervision stated that it will continue to pay attention to the market price order of important commodities such as chips, and further strengthen supervision and law enforcement, and severely investigate and punish illegal acts such as hoarding, price drive ups, and price collusion.

Industry experts said that the state's measures to suppress price hikes and stock hoarding can ease the tight supply of chips and stabilize prices to a certain extent. At this stage, there is a large gap in global auto supply and demand. Insufficient chip supply has caused some domestic auto companies to reduce production. In recent months, some auto companies have seen a sharp decline in their wholesale sales. In particular, joint-venture brand dealers’ order demand and existing inventory do not match, which in turn leads to retail sales. Weak.

System advances "filling core"

Automobile chips are important devices related to the core competitiveness of the industry and the key foundation for the construction of a powerful automobile nation. According to industry insiders, automotive-grade chips have high requirements for reliability, consistency and stability. The cooperation between general car companies and chip suppliers is long-term and continuous, and the chip industry cycle is rigid, and the scheduled delivery cycle exceeds half a year. It takes time to make up for the shortcomings, and the chip industry’s characteristics of "fixed production by sales, low inventory or even zero inventory" have led to a long replenishment cycle. Coupled with many factors such as increased demand and interference in the supply chain, the automotive industry is short of cores. continued.

In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, said that solving the problem of "core shortage" requires coordination of the industrial chain, the combination of far and near, and multiple measures to strengthen the connection between supply and demand, and promote the stable and healthy development of my country's automobile industry.

Since the beginning of this year, the Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have successively introduced measures to alleviate the problem of chip shortages.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the key points of automotive standardization work in 2021, emphasizing that the automotive electronics field must conduct in-depth research on core semiconductor and component standards such as automotive chips, automotive memories, and automotive sensors. If domestic automotive-grade chips are to be autonomous and controllable, Improve the relevant technical standards and promote the integrated development of the chip industry and the parts industry.

In response to the shortage of automotive chip supply, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology established a working group for the promotion and application of automotive semiconductors, organized several coordination meetings to give full play to the strength of local governments, vehicle companies, and chip companies to strengthen supply and demand docking and work coordination, and targeted Formulate measures to promote the improvement of the supply capacity of automotive chips. At present, these measures have achieved certain results.

In addition, some large auto companies are also striving to achieve technological breakthroughs in automotive-grade chips. For example, after more than ten years of development, BYD Auto has an integrated business chain including chip design, wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing, and downstream applications.

Experts in the industry suggest to promote the joint efforts of OEMs and system suppliers to support key chip companies, help chip companies to solve the problem of localization of automotive-grade chips with low technical thresholds, and improve the ability of automotive-grade chip localization systems. Promoted by chip suppliers, the endogenous power of chip suppliers is formed to solve the problem of localization of automotive-grade chips with high technical thresholds. In addition, the top-level design of the automobile industry should be strengthened, the industrial foundation should be consolidated, and an independent, controllable and open industrial chain and supply chain should be forged in an all-round and multi-layered manner, and the leading role of vehicle companies in the development of the automobile industry should be fully utilized, and R&D investment should be increased. , To excavate and transform the advanced scientific research results of universities and scientific research institutes, build a national vehicle-level testing and verification platform, formulate national standards for vehicle-level chip testing and verification, and improve the testing process.