Auto & Transportation

In recent times, the issue of “lack of cores” in automobiles has aroused social concern. Because of the shortage of chips, Ford, Toyota and other international car companies, as well as some domestic car companies, have successively reduced or even stopped production. At present, the price of automotive chips has skyrocketed, but the demand is still in short supply.

Why is there a "chip shortage" in the automotive industry? When can the "core shortage" situation be improved? In the future, how should my country realize autonomous control of automotive chips? Reporter conducted an interview.

1. Global car companies are “lack of cores” on a large scale

【data】

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August this year, affected by the domestic and Malaysian new crown pneumonia epidemic and the shortage of automotive chip supply, my country's automobile production and sales continued to decline year-on-year. The automobile production and sales were 1.725 million and 1.799 million, respectively, down year-on-year. 18.7% and 17.8%.

"Recently, there is a shortage of chips, and some models in our store are temporarily out of stock." said a staff member of a Guangzhou Toyota 4S store in Beijing. A few days ago, Toyota Motor said that due to the shortage of automotive chips, it plans to significantly reduce its global production.

On October 1, Ideal Auto announced the delivery data for September 2021. In September, Ideal Car delivered 7094 Ideal ONEs. In August, Ideal Car delivered 9433 Ideal ONEs. "Affected by the continued shortage of chip supply, Ideal Automotive's September delivery volume has declined. We are taking more measures to ensure the supply of parts and components, hoping to shorten the waiting period for users to pick up the car as much as possible." Ideal Automotive Co-founder and President Shen Yanan said.

In addition, automobile brands such as Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile have seen fewer vehicles sold in stock and prolonged ordering cycles.

Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said in an interview with this reporter that compared to new energy vehicles, the problem of "core shortage" in traditional cars is more prominent. In terms of production and sales, from January to August, my country's automobile production and sales completed 16.166 million and 16.556 million respectively; the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.813 million and 1.799 million, and the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles was close to 11%. The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles is smaller than that of traditional vehicles, and their chip purchases are relatively small. Some chip manufacturers may give priority to guaranteeing the supply of new energy vehicle chips.

"Our research found that the'lack of cores' is a wide range. Basically, most automotive chips are lacking, such as body stability control systems, autonomous electronic control units (ECU) and other chips; especially micro control unit (MCU) chips are most in short supply. , Is also the most representative." Xu Haidong said that not only domestic cars are "short of core", but Japanese, American, and German cars are all "short of core." The supply of chips is global, and the "lack of cores" is also a global problem.

Since the second half of 2020, global chip manufacturing capacity has continued to be tight, and the “lack of cores” in automobiles has become a problem facing global automakers.

In February of this year, General Motors announced that three plants in the United States, Canada, and Mexico would cease production, and a plant in South Korea would halve its output. Since January of this year, automobile companies such as Honda and Nissan have announced production cuts, and some of their production lines in Japan have been brought to a standstill. The impact of chip shortages on the European automotive industry is also increasing. According to German media reports, Volkswagen and Audi have ceased production to varying degrees due to chip shortages.

Wang Shulei, a researcher at the Emerging Industry Research Office of the Planning Institute of China Electronics and Information Industry Development Research Institute, believes that there are many factors in the problem of automotive "core shortage", which can be understood from the two aspects of supply and demand. The so-called "core shortage" is essentially "supply is less than demand." The "theatre effect" of the demand side scrambling to reserve chips has intensified, and the problem of "core shortage" in automobiles has become more prominent under circumstances such as the global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.

2. The epidemic has made supply worse

【predict】

Some market research institutions have estimated that due to the shortage of chips, the global production of 1 million cars was cut in the first quarter of this year. In 2021, the global automotive industry sales will decrease by 60 billion U.S. dollars. In addition, with the gradual application of 5G, artificial intelligence and other technologies in the automotive field, chip applications in the automotive industry will show a trend of exponential growth.

What is the reason for the "lack of core" in automobiles?

Xu Haidong believes that at present, more and more chips are used in automobiles, coupled with the continuous increase in sales of consumer electronic products, chip consumption is in a state of rapid growth. At the same time, in recent years, foreign epidemics, especially those in Malaysia, as well as the snowstorm in Texas, a major US semiconductor center, and the fire at the Renesas chip factory in Japan, have made the already tight chip supply "exacerbated."

"The'core shortage' situation may continue next year, and it may not really be alleviated until 2023, because it will take about three years for chips to form production capacity." Xu Haidong said that the shortage of chips will affect car production and sales. Even if there is a demand, a car cannot be produced without a chip. In the next one or two years, the growth rate of automobile production and sales will approximately maintain the level of last year, and there will be no significant increase.

According to Wang Shulei's analysis, from the perspective of the supply side, the number of automotive chip manufacturers is limited. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the exporting countries of automotive chip raw materials have significantly reduced their exports, and the intermediate manufacturing links have been severely impacted, resulting in a serious lag on the supply side. For example, Malaysia accounts for 7% of global semiconductor trade and 13% of global semiconductor testing and packaging capacity. Affected by the epidemic, chip supply has been hit hard. From the demand side, the global automobile market, especially the new energy automobile market, has strong demand, and the problem of mismatch between the supply and demand structure has become more prominent.

"my country is the world's largest auto market, and the root cause of the car's core shortage is the unbalanced supply and demand structure." Wang Shulei said, based on the stable advantages of epidemic prevention and control, my country is the first in the world to resume normal work and production and resume economic growth. The domestic market demand continues to increase, laying a good foundation for the development of the domestic automobile industry. At the same time, foreign countries are deeply troubled by the epidemic, and some automotive chip raw materials and packaging manufacturing links are affected, and they cannot meet the domestic automotive industry production in a timely and effective manner. The epidemic has become the biggest uncontrollable factor at present.

Tian Yulong, a member of the party group, chief engineer, and spokesperson of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that in response to the current prominent problem of the tension between the supply and demand of automotive chips, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and relevant departments have established a working group for the promotion and application of automotive semiconductors to strengthen the connection between supply and demand and work coordination to promote Improve the supply capacity of automotive chips. Especially in response to the current extreme shortage of specific chip production and supply, the organization has organized industry associations and enterprises to strengthen contacts, promoted the resumption of work and production of some companies, and ensured the supply of some specific chips as much as possible. At the same time, the approval process will be simplified so that the replacement chip will be promoted and applied as soon as possible.

"In general, the tightness of the chip supply chain will still exist for some time, and the current problem is still quite serious." Tian Yulong said.

3. Based on the domestic realization of independent and controllable

【Case】

Li Yunfei, general manager of the brand and public relations division of BYD Co., Ltd., said that BYD has long established research and development in automotive chips. After more than 10 years of development, it has integrated operations including chip design, wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing, and downstream applications. The whole industry chain.

How to crack the car's "lack of core"?

In Wang Shulei's view, it cannot be solved overnight. It is necessary to realize the independent substitution of localization in stages, establish industrial alliances, increase investment in research and development, and carry out joint basic research.

"Recently, we have noticed that the US Department of Commerce requires companies in the automotive industry to voluntarily provide chip supply-related information." Wang Shulei said that in the context of automotive core shortages, it is important to establish a dynamic database of supply and demand in the automotive industry chain, which will help improve the supply chain. The information transparency of the link facilitates the government to make relevant policy adjustments in a timely manner, and facilitates enterprises to adjust production, procurement, and marketing strategies in a timely manner to avoid problems such as a large number of orders and a serious shortage of raw materials that affect normal operation and production, and the inability of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain to operate effectively.

As the cornerstone of the digital economy, it is difficult for any country or region to ignore its important role in future economic and social development. Xu Haidong believes that to solve the problem of "core shortage", it is necessary to build a foothold in the country and gradually realize localization. Automobile companies and chip manufacturing companies should unite for joint development and application. The government should guide through policies and funds, for example, encourage relevant companies to use domestic chips, and provide financial support or subsidies to reduce the worry of automobile OEMs about using domestic chips. At the same time, foreign chip companies can also be encouraged to start production in China.

“As long as production capacity comes up, the problem of chip shortage will be alleviated, but if you want to truly solve the crisis of “core shortage”, it is necessary to realize the independent control of chips. Relevant enterprises in my country should work together, especially in increasing the scale of production and product quality and performance. Do a lot of work in other areas." Xu Haidong said.

Tian Yulong said that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will strengthen the monitoring, analysis and judgment of the development of the automotive industry and the supply capacity of chip manufacturing, targeted solutions to the current shortages of auto companies, and actively support chip manufacturers to accelerate the improvement of supply capabilities and accelerate the operation of alternative solutions. Use, optimize the layout of the entire industry chain, so that the chip supply capacity will form a stable supply in the future, and fundamentally solve the problem.

"We must accelerate transformation and upgrading, adhere to the development direction of electrification, interconnection, and intelligence, especially to accelerate the development of new energy vehicles." Tian Yulong said, we must continue to deepen open cooperation. Chips are a globalized industrial chain. To maintain the smooth flow of the supply chain, it is necessary to increase international cooperation and stabilize domestic and foreign supply channels, especially to strengthen open cooperation with countries in the fields of technological innovation, international trade, standards and regulations. , To make my country's chip industry chain supply chain further stable development, thereby promoting the high-quality development of the automotive industry.