Auto & Transportation

Lin Zhijie, an expert in the civil aviation industry, believes that the optimization of the flight circuit breaker mechanism has been greatly improved, which will significantly reduce the number of flight circuit breakers and help international flights resume.

Recently, the Civil Aviation Administration of China has optimized and adjusted the circuit breaker measures for international scheduled passenger flights. The adjusted circuit breaker measures are: for single-entry flights of airlines with 5 confirmed passengers, when the proportion of confirmed passengers reaches 4% of the number of inbound passengers on the flight, the operation will be suspended for one week; when the proportion of confirmed passengers reaches the entry of the flight When the number of passengers is 8%, the operation will be suspended for 2 weeks. The number of blown flights cannot be adjusted for other routes. Relevant policies will be adjusted in due course according to the epidemic situation and prevention and control requirements. What will be the impact of this optimization adjustment? In this regard, the reporter conducted an interview.

In June 2020, with the changes in the domestic and foreign epidemic prevention and control situation, the Civil Aviation Administration of China launched the circuit breaker mechanism for international flights. In the two years since the implementation of the circuit breaker policy, three rounds of adjustments have been made: the first adjustment was in December 2020, and the circuit breaker period for airlines with five confirmed cases on a single entry flight was extended from 1 week to 2 weeks. The second adjustment was in April 2021, which increased the passenger load factor limit, that is, if the number of confirmed passengers reaches 5 within 1 week of entry, the circuit breaker mechanism will be triggered. This is the third adjustment, from the absolute number of confirmed cases to the proportion of passengers, while shortening the circuit breaker cycle. Zhan Fen, an associate researcher at the Air Transport Research Institute of the China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology, believes that this adjustment is a turning point for the circuit breaker policy from tight to loose. The circuit breaker policy has been optimized and adjusted many times in order to meet the needs of my country's epidemic prevention and control situation and economic development.

The optimization and adjustment of circuit breaker measures will bring multiple benefits to my country's civil aviation industry. "Using the proportion of confirmed passengers to flight passengers as an indicator has changed the possibility that the larger the aircraft in the past, the greater the probability of a circuit breaker. Airlines will be more willing to use large passenger aircraft to fly international flights to meet the demand for international routes that are in short supply." China Li Xiaojin, director of the Institute of Aviation Economics at Civil Aviation University, said that taking the common domestic B747-400 aircraft as an example, if 400 passengers are counted, the same flight will only be blown when 16 people are positive. The original policy is that the number of confirmed cases reaches 5. . This will push airlines to use large aircraft such as A380 and B747 to fly international routes with high short-term demand. At the same time, the circuit breaker period has been shortened. When the number of confirmed cases exceeds 5 and reaches 4% of the total number of passengers on the flight, the circuit breaker will be closed for 1 week, which is a lot easier than the 2 week circuit breaker when the number of confirmed passengers reaches 5. Said, can reduce the possibility of flight fuse.

Zhanfen believes that the optimization of circuit breaker measures will help ease the operating pressure of airlines. Before the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, international (regional) routes accounted for more than 25% of the revenue of some airlines, and Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines had the largest number of wide-body aircraft. It is beneficial for airlines to resume long-distance international routes such as Europe, America, Australia, etc., improve the utilization rate of aircraft, and promote the improvement of operating efficiency. Under the circumstance that the recovery process of international routes in neighboring countries is significantly faster than that of my country, the pressure of some industrial chains and supply chains in my country to relocate has also increased. The resumption of international routes will help increase the supply of passenger and freight capacity, and provide effective support for stabilizing economic development and smoothing the industrial chain and supply chain.

Lin Zhijie, an expert in the civil aviation industry, believes that the optimization of the circuit breaker mechanism for this flight is very strong, which will significantly reduce the number of flight circuit breakers and help international flights resume. For civil aviation passengers, the reduction of international flight fuses will not only allow more international civil aviation passengers to travel back and forth, but also allow returning passengers to have clearer expectations, and the number of itineraries that are forced to change will be reduced. For airlines, international flights and all-cargo aircraft business are the two pillars of airline operations at this stage. The resumption of international flights will make a positive contribution to the reduction of losses in the civil aviation industry.

Relevant experts said that to promote the recovery of the international market of my country's civil aviation industry, continuous efforts are needed. Zhanfen suggested that we should start from three aspects to further promote the recovery of my country's civil aviation international market.

The first is to explore the establishment of an international flight evaluation system to dynamically and quantitatively evaluate the epidemic prevention and control effects of each airline's international routes, the country's epidemic situation, the epidemic control and response capabilities of air ports, etc., and further optimize and adjust the circuit breaker policy on this basis. The second is to optimize the management procedures for the allocation of resources for international passenger traffic rights during the epidemic, and to optimize and adjust the resource allocation policy in full consideration of new features and new requirements such as the current increase in the number of international flights and the normalization of epidemic prevention and control. Third, according to factors such as epidemic prevention and control and civil aviation market demand, consider sub-regional and phased dynamic adjustments and appropriately relax the "Five Ones" policy (the Civil Aviation Administration has implemented the implementation of only one route per airline and one country since March 2020. policy for a maximum of one shift per week).

"The recovery of the international civil aviation market is a complex systematic project, and adjustment in a certain link cannot solve the problem." Lin Zhijie believes that the Civil Aviation Administration needs to continue to increase flight quotas, restore international destinations, and optimize the circuit breaker mechanism; local governments coordinate entry and quarantine hotels , Strictly control the final border of entry. Of course, it is also necessary for every international flight support personnel to do personal protection.