Auto & Transportation

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 7th, in the first eight months of this year, China's total import and export value was 27.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. In August, China's total import and export value increased by 8.6%, and the trade surplus increased by 40.4% year-on-year.

What is the current situation of my country's import and export? What is the future trend of foreign trade? What role does China play in stabilizing global trade growth? Sohu Think Tank had a dialogue with Zhang Monan, Deputy Director of the Department of American and European Studies of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

Zhang Monan said that the current overall international trade export situation is good, and the trade surplus in July hit a new monthly high this year. Total exports in August increased by 7.1% year-on-year, down from 18% in July. The main reason is the global economic recession, especially inflation and the interest rate hike cycle in some countries, which led to a drop in demand, which was transmitted to China's domestic exports. There is a downward trend.

She pointed out that in August, my country's year-on-year exports to different regions all declined. Although the growth rate of exports to ASEAN and the EU has also declined, it has maintained a relatively stable double-digit growth. "This shows that China's manufacturing industry still has a relatively large and stable role in international trade."

"Now we should focus on the slowdown of China's export growth to the United States." Zhang Monan pointed out that the biggest decline was the growth of exports to the United States, which increased from 11% in July to a decline of 4% now, which is lower than trade growth for two consecutive months. speed. Inflationary pressure in the United States has led to a slowdown in imports, and the United States has dropped from China's first trading partner to the third.

Zhang Monan said that China is the largest trader of intermediate goods between Japan and South Korea. The stability of trade between China, Japan and South Korea will have a significant impact on the development of our next high-tech industries, including high-end manufacturing such as semiconductors, chips, and information manufacturing. "Currently, the currencies of China, Japan and South Korea have experienced greater depreciation pressure, which will have a greater impact on future trade growth."

She suggested that in addition to introducing targeted policies for the two major trading partners of ASEAN and the European Union, a more targeted policy should also be introduced for the growth of trade between China, Japan and South Korea to stabilize China Trade growth in Japan-Korea international trade.

From an industry perspective, Zhang Monan analyzed that the fastest-growing export in August was automobiles. Cars have a lot of room for growth, but high-end manufacturing such as chips is slowing. "So we should focus on supporting the development of the automotive industry, including semiconductors and other stuck industries, and fostering its export competitiveness in international trade."

"Let's not go back to the old road of export subsidies. On the one hand, this is indeed not in line with the requirements in the international market. On the other hand, if we increase export subsidies, it will actually subsidize the United States and reduce the cost of American consumers. We do not need to Make up the subsidy to American consumers," she said.

For some small, medium and micro enterprises, Zhang Monan said that their ability to withstand pressure is poor, and their policies should be more precise, targeted and long-term, focusing on medium and long-term industrial competitiveness.

What is the future trend of foreign trade? Zhang Monan believes that the gradual slowdown of foreign trade growth in the future may be a trend. In the first half of the year, foreign trade contributed significantly to economic growth, but the contribution of imports and exports to GDP may slow down in the second half of the year.

"With the European energy crisis, the United States continues to raise interest rates, the uncertainty of rising energy prices and the effect of monetary tightening will inevitably have a superimposed effect on global inflation, and will also put pressure on our production costs and international trade and export competition. " said Zhang Monan.