Auto & Transportation

On October 24, according to customs statistics, China's total import and export value in the first three quarters of this year reached 31.11 trillion yuan, up 9.9% year on year. Among them, the export reached 17.67 trillion yuan, up 13.8%; Imports reached 13.44 trillion yuan, up 5.2%.

Compared with the customs data from January to August this year, the export growth rate in the first three quarters decreased by 0.4 percentage points, while the import growth rate remained flat, indicating that China's export growth rate slowed down in September.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said that China's export performance mainly depends on the international market. At present, European and American countries have taken a series of interest rate raising measures to deal with inflation, which inevitably hurt the economy, and China's exports will naturally be affected.

Shrinkage in international demand and continued slowdown in export growth

According to customs data, in September, China's total import and export value reached 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.3%. Among them, export grew by 10.7% and import grew by 5.2%.

Compared with the data in August, China's import growth rate increased in September, but the export growth rate declined by 1.1 percentage points.

So far, China's export growth has declined for two consecutive months. According to customs data, China's export growth in August was 11.8%, a sharp decline of 12.1 percentage points compared with July.

Why has the export growth slowed down in the past two months? At present, the mainstream view is that the slowdown of foreign demand growth or the decline of exports is the main reason. In addition, it is also related to the high base in the same period last year.

The export in September was lower than expected due to the weak global macro-economy, the year-on-year decline in commodity prices, and the rising base in the same period of 2021. Data shows that JPMorgan Chase's global manufacturing PMI recorded 49.80 in September, which entered a negative range for the first time in 26 months. At the same time, JPMorgan Chase's global manufacturing PMI new orders recorded 47.70, which fell below the boom and bust line for three consecutive months, indicating that global demand has entered a contraction state.

Bai Ming also believes that the current European and American countries have taken a series of interest rate raising measures to deal with inflation, which inevitably hurt the economy and affected China's exports.

Automobile export is expected to continue high growth

Looking ahead to the future of foreign trade, Bai Ming is still confident: "International fluctuations are everywhere and all the time. The most important thing is to look at China's own core competitiveness. At present, China's performance is still good under the economic weakness of the world."

Indeed, although the export growth slowed down in the first three quarters, the export of automobiles and other products still maintained a high growth rate. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, the automobile export in the first three quarters of this year reached 259.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.1%. China has become the second largest automobile exporter in the world.

According to customs data, China's auto export volume in September was 301000, up 73.9% year on year. Since August this year, China's auto export volume in a single month has exceeded 300000 again.

Li Fei, Assistant Minister of Commerce, said at the regular briefing of the State Council on policies at the beginning of September that in recent years, China's automobile industry, especially new energy vehicles, has developed vigorously, and its international competitiveness has improved significantly. We will continue to work with relevant departments to support new energy vehicle enterprises to accelerate the construction of overseas marketing and after-sales service networks, and increase brand promotion. Overseas institutions of qualified Chinese funded banks are encouraged to provide overseas consumer financial products. We will explore ways to expand export transport channels and transport new energy vehicles through China Europe regular trains.

According to the delivery plan of the existing automobile ship orders, it is estimated that the "planned delivery capacity/total transportation capacity" in 2022-2025 will be 0.7%, 1.9%, 7.1% and 3.9% respectively, and the demand growth in 2022-2023 is expected to reach 14.8% and 3.7%, which will exceed the supply. The competitiveness of China's automobile industry will be improved, the automobile export is expected to continue to grow at a high rate, and the global automobile shipping demand will continue to grow rapidly, and the high prosperity of automobile ship transportation is expected to continue.